Huge protests were held in Iran today as many supporters of opposition candidate Mirhossein Mousavi believe the election was stolen by current Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The protests turned violent with at least 1 death when he hardline Islamic Basij militia fired on the crowds.
President Obama says the Iranian voters should be heard but he also said diplomacy with Iran should continue. Vice President Joe Biden has also spoken out and says he has "real doubts" about the Iran election results. Iran's Supreme Leader has called for a recount in the wake of the large protests. Experts believe this may be the start of a democratic shift in Iran.
Voting turnout today was very high across the nation. Although there were the usual reports of broken voting machines, incorrect voting rolls (activist and actor Tim Robbins was turned away from his polling location), and long lines, generally speaking things went smoothly.
As of 9:26 pm central time, Obama appears to be sailing ahead to an easy victory. Both CNN and Fox have called Ohio for Obama. He's also projected to have won New York, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Connecticut, New Jersey, Maine, Delaware, Maryland and Delaware. With California and the west coast still to be counted, it looks like we have a President-Elect Barack Obama. The Senate races are looking interesting. Elizabeth Dole (R - North Carolina) lost her senate seat to Kay Hagan (despite the Godless ad) and so did John Sununu (R-New Hampshire). It doesn't look like the Democrats are getting to 60 seats. In the House of Representatives, John Murtha did manage to hold on to his congressional seat, despite calling his own constituents a bunch of racists.
CNN has the latest
electoral map
with projections and popular vote counts. As for television coverage, the CNN coverage is competent: we always perk up when James Carville starts ranting. That's always fun. Alex Castellanos looks horribly depressed. The coverage took a sci fi tone when Jessica Yellin beamed in via hologram from another planet to talk about...something. That bit was so odd, I totally missed what she was saying.
Over at Fox News the tone is positively funereal. Bill Kristol literally had his head in his hands at one point. He looks miserable: he can't seem to summon up the energy to make his usual snide remarks. He is, of course, the one who convinced McCain to pick Sarah Palin as his running mate. The other day he was talking about how Palin will be president in 2012, which seems highly unlikely to me.
Fox has a new set and everyone seems confused about where they are supposed to sit and/or stand. Karl Rove predicted the result last week when he said that McCain would need a miracle to pull this off. No miracle today. As for MSNBC, Rachel Maddow appears to be drinking cocktails which surely violates some kind of FCC rule. Then again, it's election night so hey -- go ahead and have a celebratory (or consoling) drink.
Update: Fox News has called the race for Barack Obama, referring to him as the President-Elect as it is now mathematically impossible for John McCain to win.
Politico reports
that tensions between the Palin and McCain camps are rising during these final weeks of the campaign. There are also reports that Palin is off the reservation and is ignoring her talking points, putting forth her own opinions.
Four Republicans close to Palin said she has decided increasingly to disregard the advice of the former Bush aides tasked to handle her, creating occasionally tense situations as she travels the country with them. Those Palin supporters, inside the campaign and out, said Palin blames her handlers for a botched rollout and a tarnished public image — even as others in McCain's camp blame the pick of the relatively inexperienced Alaska governor, and her public performance, for McCain's decline.
"She's lost confidence in most of the people on the plane," said a senior Republican who speaks to Palin, referring to her campaign jet. He said Palin had begun to "go rogue" in some of her public pronouncements and decisions.
"I think she'd like to go more rogue," he said.
*****
Between Palin's internal detractors and her allies, there's a middle ground: Some aides say that she's a flawed candidate whose handling exaggerated her weak spots.
"She was completely mishandled in the beginning. No one took the time to look at what her personal strengths and weaknesses are and developed a plan that made sense based on who she is as a candidate," the aide said. "Any concerns she or those close to her have about that are totally valid."
But the aide said that Palin's inexperience led her to her own mistakes:
"How she was handled allowed her weaknesses to hang out in full display."
Palin has been talking more to reporters lately, but it's hard to see how she can make up for past mistakes at this late date. The current electoral map has Obama winning in a virtual landslide. The minute the economic crisis hit, it became very clear that Mitt Romney would have been the better VP pick.
Mitt is smart, he understands finance and economic policy: the campaign could have put him front and center from the first day. He could speak fluently about economic policy without needing to study up the night before and could have had daily press conferences during the time that Congress was dithering around on the bailout package. Instead the McCain camp had Sarah Palin, who is so out of her depth on economic matters it's shocking. That was a major misstep by the McCain campaign, and probably sealed the deal for Obama.
What Does the Rest of the World Think About the U.S. Election?
The Economist has an interesting interactive map that show what people in other countries think about the upcoming presidential election. The other countries are overwhelmingly for Barack Obama. What we don't know yet is what the majority in the United States think. Some of the electoral maps - see here and here - seem to giving Obama a slight edge but it's way too early to make a call.
Women supporters of Hillary Clinton are quite angry
at the ludicrous, partisan calls from some Obama supporters for Hillary to drop out of the race.
Amid mounting calls from top Democrats for Clinton to step aside and clear the path for rival Barack Obama, strategists are warning of damage to the party's chances in November if women - who make up the majority of Democratic voters nationwide, but especially the older, white working-class women who've long formed the former first lady's base - sense a mostly male party establishment is unfairly muscling Clinton out of the race.
"Women will indeed be upset if it appears people are trying to push Hillary Clinton out of the way," said Carol Fowler, the South Carolina Democratic Party chair who is backing Obama. "If you are going to ask her to withdraw, you'd better be making a strong case for it - both to the candidate and the public."
Vermont Sen. Patrick Leahy last week became the first leading Democrat to openly call on Clinton to abandon her bid and back Obama, a sentiment shared by many activists worried that a drawn-out nominating contest only bolsters Republican nominee-in-waiting John McCain.
*****
Campaigning across the state Saturday, Clinton was greeted by large, heavily female crowds that shouted "You go, sister!" and "We've got your back!" in support of her pioneering candidacy. Indiana votes May 6.
Marie Wilson, president of the White House Project that trains women to run for office, noted that women typically have rallied around Clinton when she's appeared most vulnerable - from the revelations of her husband's dalliance with White House intern Monica Lewinsky to January's New Hampshire primary after the bruising loss to Obama in Iowa.
"Women have always been asked to step aside if it was somehow for the greater good. In this case, Clinton, and a lot of her female supporters, clearly feel that she would make the better president and that it would not be for the greater good for her to step aside," Wilson said.
To ask Hillary Clinton to step down when she is about to win a major primary in Pennsylvania is absolutely ludicrous. It's all blustering to try to psych her and her supporters out. Well, it's not working. All it's doing is infuriating women voters who have had it up to here with the sycophantic, Obama-bedazzled press and Obama's obnoxious supporters.
I find myself in the strange position of knowing exactly how Vice president Dick Cheney felt when he so famously blasted. Senator Leahy on the Senate floor after Leahy said something particularly irritating. At the time Cheney's aide called it a "frank exchange of views." In retrospect it was just Leahy shooting off his big mouth, as usual. If Leahy keeps this nonsense up, he'll be on the receiving end of some
"frank exchanges of views" -- from his female constituents.
John McCain has released his first general election ad. It's a great ad which focuses on McCain's character and his love for America. It does mention tax relief, however as a headline that reads "McCain Promises Middle Class Tax Relief". McCain is also shown as a clearly scared but very brave young prisoner of war, being asked to give his rank and serial number. It's a gut punch to voters, reminding them of what he has been through in his life.
The tagline is a doozy: "John McCain: the American president that Americans have been waiting for." It's a riff on Obama's "we're the ones we've been waiting for." It also takes a subtle swipe at Obama and his wife on patriotism. The problem here is that no one doubts John McCain's patriotism. Voters aren't sure that he knows what he's doing on the economy, which is why his choice of running mate will be very important.
Overall, it's a very effective ad.
Mike Huckabee Explains Texas Strategy to Stephen Colbert
Mike Huckabee shows up on The Colbert Report to explain why he is still in the race and that John McCain is not the winner -- yet. As they played air hockey with the state of Texas as the puck, Colbert asked Huckabee: "Why do you think the people of Texas will go for your message?" Huckabee:"Because I understand barbeque." It's a compelling argument. See the video here:
Super Tuesday is tomorrow and the polls are looking pretty strange, especially on the Democratic side. In fact, they're all over the place. Several polls show Obama closing in on Hillary Clinton in California with a virtual tie, although a new Survey USA poll has her up by 12 and a new Zogby has Obama up by four (see all the latest California polls here).
See all the most recent polls here.
Obama has definitely gotten a bounce in the past week, but the internals of most of the polls show an unusually high number of undecided voters, which has to be some kind of a first. Are there really that many Democrats who still haven't made up their minds between Clinton and Obama? Turnout will be key. If the women and Latino groups show up to vote in large numbers tomorrow, Clinton wins California. Her big state strategy will pay off and I think she will win the popular vote and the delegate count tomorrow. The question is by how much. It's not mathematically possible for either candidate to wrap up the nomination tomorrow, so we're in for a lot more campaigning.
On the Republican side, it seems clear that McCain is going to be pretty happy tomorrow night. Although according to the Secretary of State we may not know who won California until Wednesday, which is going to make for a pretty stressful evening for the campaigns (especially the Obama and Clinton campaigns). Mitt Romney was looking good in California in some polls, so the upset of the day would be a win for him there. That would be huge. Coming off his win in Maine, that would give him some sorely needed Mittmentum. But Huckabee is the real spoiler for Romney: he's racking up votes from Evangelicals and they like him in the South.
Without some surprises tomorrow, McCain will be heading towards a coronation. But, as the Patriots found out Sunday, it's not over till it's over.
John McCain made a statement in a stump speech that stumped most of the audience: he warned
them that "there will be other wars."
The presidential candidate who sang "Bomb bomb Iran" is already looking towards the war after the war in Iraq.
Sen. John McCain told a crowd of supporters on Sunday, "It's a tough war we're in. It's not going to be over right away. There's going to be other wars." Offering more of his increasingly bleak "straight talk," he repeated the claim: "I'm sorry to tell you, there's going to be other wars. We will never surrender but there will be other wars."
McCain did not elaborate who the United States would be fighting. But he did warn the crowd to be ready for the ramifications of current and future battles.
"And right now -- we're gonna have a lot of PTSD [post traumatic stress disorder] to treat, my friends," he said. "We're gonna have a lot of combat wounds that have to do with these terrible explosive IEDs that inflict such severe wounds. And my friends, it's gonna be tough, we're gonna have a lot to do.
This is after he told us that we could easily be in Iraq for "the next 100 years." Has Senator McCain not been reading the polls? 60% of Americans think the Iraq war was not worth it and the midterm elections made it clear that the public wants out of Iraq as soon as possible. Instead, he's running on a platform of 100 years in Iraq -- plus some exciting new wars, full of post traumatic stress disorder and ghastly injuries? That's quite a campaign strategy.
Lou Dobbs Criticizes Poll-Obsessed Media on The Daily Show
CNN anchor Lou Dobbs apologizes on The Daily Show for CNN getting the New Hampshire caucus results wrong. Dobbs also takes the media to task over exit polling and for prematurely inaugurating Barack Obama. Jon Stewart also runs a clip from Loud Dobbs' show where he polled his audience to see if they were tired of the media talking about candidates' charisma and likability instead of focusing on the important issues.
Fred Thompson is the Boogie Woogie President of 2008
In response to the Obama Girl video, these young fans of Fred Thompson have reinterpreted "Boogie Woogie Bugle Boy" to support their candidate. On the bright side for Thompson: most of the youth today will have no idea that this was recorded in 1941 and became a big hit for The Andrews Sisters. It also became closely associated with the World War II era. Those that were young in 1941 will certainly recognize it.
The original "I Got A Crush on Obama" video was made by Barely Political, a political entertainment company. The video really upset Michelle Obama: her kids were teased about it at school and she had to explain why some young woman was singing about her crush on their dad. This new video by The Gilberts is totally G rated and shouldn't offend anyone (other than music critics who might wince at a couple of missed musical notes).
I'm still reeling from tonight's Republican debate in South Carolina. I have never seen a debate that started with what looked like the Lawrence Welk singers belting out the national anthem beforehand. Really -- the women were in beauty pageant-style evening gowns. I thought I had tuned into the wrong channel (I was about five minutes late in tuning in). The evening went steadily downhill from there.
Here are some lowlights:
Ron Paul was allowed to participate, so all candidates took pot shots at him every chance they got. Brit Hume yelled at him. The other moderator hit him with a 9/11 Truthers question and demanded that he stop his supporters from saying our own government caused 9/11. Paul, looking mightily confused, said that he didn't believe that, but he couldn't help what people believed. He then went back to his dogged economic analysis.
John McCain went on and on about "Freedom of the Seas" puzzling everyone. Mike Huckabee said Iran could expect to see the Gates of Hell if they engaged our military. Earlier this week he told Jon Stewart he would chase Osama bin Laden to the Gates of Hell and beyond -- with a water pistol if necessary. Really.
Fred Thompson woke from his eight months' hibernation and lit into Huckabee for being a socialist/commie: raising taxes, talking to the teachers' unions, threatening to ban smoking nationwide, closing Guantanamo Bay, demanding social benefits for illegal aliens etc etc. In the coup de grace, Thompson accused Huckabee of espousing the platform of the Democratic party (big cheers from the crowd at this point).
Rudy Guiliani lays out his new tax plan (lower capital gains, ending the death tax, making the forms easier) and talked about how he handled illegal immigration as mayor of New York. Actually, Guiliani was the only one who sounded fairly sane and competent. He's stopped saying 9/11 so much: now it's "Ronald Reagan." Everyone competed to see how many times they could invoke the Gipper's name. Advantage: Guiliani.
Mitt Romney got in a crack about how Ron Paul had been reading Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's press releases, after Paul suggested there was no reason to start World War 3 over the Strait of Hormuz speedboat incident. Romney gets the Nerd Alert Award of the evening by describing international situation as "three dimensional chess" -- you know, the kind Kirk and Spock played on the original Star Trek series. Clearly, he's after the geek vote. Actually the "three dimensional chess" comment ("international affairs used to be like checkers but now they're like three dimensional chess") was quite impressive. Score one for Romney.
And the tap dancing award of the evening goes to Mike Huckabee, for trying to weasel out an explanation of the newspaper ad he placed saying how wives should be subservient to their husbands. He didn't get a chance to expound on his evolution views (there are "no apes in my family tree!"), but maybe it will come up in the next debate.
In this video CBS political analyst Jeff Greenfield explains how the Iowa caucuses work for both parties. The caucuses for both parties function very differently. The Republicans' Iowa caucus process is the much simpler one. It is very similar to a straw ballot with voters casting secret votes on a piece of paper. The voting process used by the Democrats is public. It is quiet complex and involves people standing in designated areas to support their candidate of choice. The Democratic candidates also need to achieve at least 15% support or their supporters can leave and go home or switch their support to another candidate.
Jeff Greenfield - who was a political analyst on CNN for many years before joining CBS - always manages to make complex political issues much easier to understand. If you want a written explanation of how the caucuses work you can read about the process here on Wikipedia and here on the Iowa Caucus website.
New Hampshire has finally set the date for its primaries: it's January 8, 2008 which is the earliest the primaries have ever been held in the state.
Iowa's nominating contest on January 3 and New Hampshire's primary kick off state-by-state battles to winnow out losers and elevate a select few candidates to move ahead and seek their parties' presidential nominations.
"It's earlier than we had imagined not too long ago, but first and foremost we are going to preserve the New Hampshire primary and this will let us do that," New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner told a news conference.
For more than half a century, running for the White House has meant romancing voters in New Hampshire, shaking hands and flipping burgers in hole-in-the-wall diners, in the hope that winning the state will spark a surge of publicity to secure the nomination in other states.
But a shake-up in the nominating calendar means the January 8 primary is the earliest in the history of New Hampshire, which has held the first primary in every presidential campaign since 1920.
New York Sen. Hillary Clinton leads the race for the Democratic nomination in the state, according to recent polls, while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads among likely Republican voters.
Both New Hampshire and Iowa have faced complaints that the mostly white and rural states do not offer a representative test for candidates, and that more racially and economically diverse states should play a bigger role.
The January 8th date puts the New Hampshire primary five days after the Iowa caucuses, which is the usual sequence of events. Michigan will most likely have its primary on January 15, 2008. All of this jockeying for position by the states is having a major effect on the next presidential election. For one thing, we are moving closer and closer to a national primary. Another effect is that voters are being forced to watch over a year of debates as the candidates desperately try to distinguish themselves from their competitors.
The battle over which state gets to hold its primary first has reached absurd levels -- at one point New Hampshire was threatening to hold a December primary, just so it could be first. Perhaps envisioning furious voters staying home from the primaries in droves, cooler heads prevailed in The Granite State.
