What Does the Rest of the World Think About the U.S. Election?
The Economist has an interesting interactive map that show what people in other countries think about the upcoming presidential election. The other countries are overwhelmingly for Barack Obama. What we don't know yet is what the majority in the United States think. Some of the electoral maps - see here and here - seem to giving Obama a slight edge but it's way too early to make a call.
Women supporters of Hillary Clinton are quite angry
at the ludicrous, partisan calls from some Obama supporters for Hillary to drop out of the race.
Amid mounting calls from top Democrats for Clinton to step aside and clear the path for rival Barack Obama, strategists are warning of damage to the party's chances in November if women - who make up the majority of Democratic voters nationwide, but especially the older, white working-class women who've long formed the former first lady's base - sense a mostly male party establishment is unfairly muscling Clinton out of the race.
"Women will indeed be upset if it appears people are trying to push Hillary Clinton out of the way," said Carol Fowler, the South Carolina Democratic Party chair who is backing Obama. "If you are going to ask her to withdraw, you'd better be making a strong case for it - both to the candidate and the public."
Vermont Sen. Patrick Leahy last week became the first leading Democrat to openly call on Clinton to abandon her bid and back Obama, a sentiment shared by many activists worried that a drawn-out nominating contest only bolsters Republican nominee-in-waiting John McCain.
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Campaigning across the state Saturday, Clinton was greeted by large, heavily female crowds that shouted "You go, sister!" and "We've got your back!" in support of her pioneering candidacy. Indiana votes May 6.
Marie Wilson, president of the White House Project that trains women to run for office, noted that women typically have rallied around Clinton when she's appeared most vulnerable - from the revelations of her husband's dalliance with White House intern Monica Lewinsky to January's New Hampshire primary after the bruising loss to Obama in Iowa.
"Women have always been asked to step aside if it was somehow for the greater good. In this case, Clinton, and a lot of her female supporters, clearly feel that she would make the better president and that it would not be for the greater good for her to step aside," Wilson said.
To ask Hillary Clinton to step down when she is about to win a major primary in Pennsylvania is absolutely ludicrous. It's all blustering to try to psych her and her supporters out. Well, it's not working. All it's doing is infuriating women voters who have had it up to here with the sycophantic, Obama-bedazzled press and Obama's obnoxious supporters.
I find myself in the strange position of knowing exactly how Vice president Dick Cheney felt when he so famously blasted. Senator Leahy on the Senate floor after Leahy said something particularly irritating. At the time Cheney's aide called it a "frank exchange of views." In retrospect it was just Leahy shooting off his big mouth, as usual. If Leahy keeps this nonsense up, he'll be on the receiving end of some
"frank exchanges of views" -- from his female constituents.
John McCain has released his first general election ad. It's a great ad which focuses on McCain's character and his love for America. It does mention tax relief, however as a headline that reads "McCain Promises Middle Class Tax Relief". McCain is also shown as a clearly scared but very brave young prisoner of war, being asked to give his rank and serial number. It's a gut punch to voters, reminding them of what he has been through in his life.
The tagline is a doozy: "John McCain: the American president that Americans have been waiting for." It's a riff on Obama's "we're the ones we've been waiting for." It also takes a subtle swipe at Obama and his wife on patriotism. The problem here is that no one doubts John McCain's patriotism. Voters aren't sure that he knows what he's doing on the economy, which is why his choice of running mate will be very important.
Overall, it's a very effective ad.
Mike Huckabee Explains Texas Strategy to Stephen Colbert
Mike Huckabee shows up on The Colbert Report to explain why he is still in the race and that John McCain is not the winner -- yet. As they played air hockey with the state of Texas as the puck, Colbert asked Huckabee: "Why do you think the people of Texas will go for your message?" Huckabee:"Because I understand barbeque." It's a compelling argument. See the video here:
Super Tuesday is tomorrow and the polls are looking pretty strange, especially on the Democratic side. In fact, they're all over the place. Several polls show Obama closing in on Hillary Clinton in California with a virtual tie, although a new Survey USA poll has her up by 12 and a new Zogby has Obama up by four (see all the latest California polls here).
See all the most recent polls here.
Obama has definitely gotten a bounce in the past week, but the internals of most of the polls show an unusually high number of undecided voters, which has to be some kind of a first. Are there really that many Democrats who still haven't made up their minds between Clinton and Obama? Turnout will be key. If the women and Latino groups show up to vote in large numbers tomorrow, Clinton wins California. Her big state strategy will pay off and I think she will win the popular vote and the delegate count tomorrow. The question is by how much. It's not mathematically possible for either candidate to wrap up the nomination tomorrow, so we're in for a lot more campaigning.
On the Republican side, it seems clear that McCain is going to be pretty happy tomorrow night. Although according to the Secretary of State we may not know who won California until Wednesday, which is going to make for a pretty stressful evening for the campaigns (especially the Obama and Clinton campaigns). Mitt Romney was looking good in California in some polls, so the upset of the day would be a win for him there. That would be huge. Coming off his win in Maine, that would give him some sorely needed Mittmentum. But Huckabee is the real spoiler for Romney: he's racking up votes from Evangelicals and they like him in the South.
Without some surprises tomorrow, McCain will be heading towards a coronation. But, as the Patriots found out Sunday, it's not over till it's over.
Lou Dobbs Criticizes Poll-Obsessed Media on The Daily Show
CNN anchor Lou Dobbs apologizes on The Daily Show for CNN getting the New Hampshire caucus results wrong. Dobbs also takes the media to task over exit polling and for prematurely inaugurating Barack Obama. Jon Stewart also runs a clip from Loud Dobbs' show where he polled his audience to see if they were tired of the media talking about candidates' charisma and likability instead of focusing on the important issues.
Fred Thompson is the Boogie Woogie President of 2008
In response to the Obama Girl video, these young fans of Fred Thompson have reinterpreted "Boogie Woogie Bugle Boy" to support their candidate. On the bright side for Thompson: most of the youth today will have no idea that this was recorded in 1941 and became a big hit for The Andrews Sisters. It also became closely associated with the World War II era. Those that were young in 1941 will certainly recognize it.
The original "I Got A Crush on Obama" video was made by Barely Political, a political entertainment company. The video really upset Michelle Obama: her kids were teased about it at school and she had to explain why some young woman was singing about her crush on their dad. This new video by The Gilberts is totally G rated and shouldn't offend anyone (other than music critics who might wince at a couple of missed musical notes).
I'm still reeling from tonight's Republican debate in South Carolina. I have never seen a debate that started with what looked like the Lawrence Welk singers belting out the national anthem beforehand. Really -- the women were in beauty pageant-style evening gowns. I thought I had tuned into the wrong channel (I was about five minutes late in tuning in). The evening went steadily downhill from there.
Here are some lowlights:
Ron Paul was allowed to participate, so all candidates took pot shots at him every chance they got. Brit Hume yelled at him. The other moderator hit him with a 9/11 Truthers question and demanded that he stop his supporters from saying our own government caused 9/11. Paul, looking mightily confused, said that he didn't believe that, but he couldn't help what people believed. He then went back to his dogged economic analysis.
John McCain went on and on about "Freedom of the Seas" puzzling everyone. Mike Huckabee said Iran could expect to see the Gates of Hell if they engaged our military. Earlier this week he told Jon Stewart he would chase Osama bin Laden to the Gates of Hell and beyond -- with a water pistol if necessary. Really.
Fred Thompson woke from his eight months' hibernation and lit into Huckabee for being a socialist/commie: raising taxes, talking to the teachers' unions, threatening to ban smoking nationwide, closing Guantanamo Bay, demanding social benefits for illegal aliens etc etc. In the coup de grace, Thompson accused Huckabee of espousing the platform of the Democratic party (big cheers from the crowd at this point).
Rudy Guiliani lays out his new tax plan (lower capital gains, ending the death tax, making the forms easier) and talked about how he handled illegal immigration as mayor of New York. Actually, Guiliani was the only one who sounded fairly sane and competent. He's stopped saying 9/11 so much: now it's "Ronald Reagan." Everyone competed to see how many times they could invoke the Gipper's name. Advantage: Guiliani.
Mitt Romney got in a crack about how Ron Paul had been reading Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's press releases, after Paul suggested there was no reason to start World War 3 over the Strait of Hormuz speedboat incident. Romney gets the Nerd Alert Award of the evening by describing international situation as "three dimensional chess" -- you know, the kind Kirk and Spock played on the original Star Trek series. Clearly, he's after the geek vote. Actually the "three dimensional chess" comment ("international affairs used to be like checkers but now they're like three dimensional chess") was quite impressive. Score one for Romney.
And the tap dancing award of the evening goes to Mike Huckabee, for trying to weasel out an explanation of the newspaper ad he placed saying how wives should be subservient to their husbands. He didn't get a chance to expound on his evolution views (there are "no apes in my family tree!"), but maybe it will come up in the next debate.
In this video CBS political analyst Jeff Greenfield explains how the Iowa caucuses work for both parties. The caucuses for both parties function very differently. The Republicans' Iowa caucus process is the much simpler one. It is very similar to a straw ballot with voters casting secret votes on a piece of paper. The voting process used by the Democrats is public. It is quiet complex and involves people standing in designated areas to support their candidate of choice. The Democratic candidates also need to achieve at least 15% support or their supporters can leave and go home or switch their support to another candidate.
Jeff Greenfield - who was a political analyst on CNN for many years before joining CBS - always manages to make complex political issues much easier to understand. If you want a written explanation of how the caucuses work you can read about the process here on Wikipedia and here on the Iowa Caucus website.
New Hampshire has finally set the date for its primaries: it's January 8, 2008 which is the earliest the primaries have ever been held in the state.
Iowa's nominating contest on January 3 and New Hampshire's primary kick off state-by-state battles to winnow out losers and elevate a select few candidates to move ahead and seek their parties' presidential nominations.
"It's earlier than we had imagined not too long ago, but first and foremost we are going to preserve the New Hampshire primary and this will let us do that," New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner told a news conference.
For more than half a century, running for the White House has meant romancing voters in New Hampshire, shaking hands and flipping burgers in hole-in-the-wall diners, in the hope that winning the state will spark a surge of publicity to secure the nomination in other states.
But a shake-up in the nominating calendar means the January 8 primary is the earliest in the history of New Hampshire, which has held the first primary in every presidential campaign since 1920.
New York Sen. Hillary Clinton leads the race for the Democratic nomination in the state, according to recent polls, while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads among likely Republican voters.
Both New Hampshire and Iowa have faced complaints that the mostly white and rural states do not offer a representative test for candidates, and that more racially and economically diverse states should play a bigger role.
The January 8th date puts the New Hampshire primary five days after the Iowa caucuses, which is the usual sequence of events. Michigan will most likely have its primary on January 15, 2008. All of this jockeying for position by the states is having a major effect on the next presidential election. For one thing, we are moving closer and closer to a national primary. Another effect is that voters are being forced to watch over a year of debates as the candidates desperately try to distinguish themselves from their competitors.
The battle over which state gets to hold its primary first has reached absurd levels -- at one point New Hampshire was threatening to hold a December primary, just so it could be first. Perhaps envisioning furious voters staying home from the primaries in droves, cooler heads prevailed in The Granite State.
Michigan has just announced
that it will move its primary up to January 15, 2008. Michigan is just latest state to move its primary up in a bid to oust the states of New Hampshire and Iowa from their preeminent position in American politics.
State lawmakers approved the bill setting the earlier primary date this afternoon, and it could reach the desk of Gov. Jennifer M. Granholm, a Democrat, as early as tomorrow. Liz Boyd, a spokeswoman for Ms. Granholm, said that she will sign the bill.
"Governor Granholm supports a primary that will make Michigan relevant in the presidential selection process," Ms. Boyd said.
But if state Democratic and Republican officials decide to abide by the earlier date, they'll be in violation of national party rules that restrict the number of states that are allowed to hold primaries before Feb. 5. And, Michigan Democrats are said to be considering whether to scrap the primary altogether and hold caucuses instead.
The Democratic and Republican national committees have indicated they will sanction Michigan for holding an early primary. The D.N.C. has said it will take away all the state's national convention delegates, while the R.N.C. may refuse to seat half of them.
The arguments against a de facto national primary are that the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries are the only times voters will see candidates taking unscripted questions from actual voters, going door to door and freezing in dawn's chill to talk to laborers before work. A national primary will favor the candidates who have the most money, name recognition and -- most importantly -- perform well on-camera.
This is a losing issue for the national parties. The Democratic and Republican parties can sanction all they want; this is the new reality of a high-tech world. Eventually there will be a national primary. Iowa and New Hampshire's folksy primaries will be distant memory from the past. Hopefully by then we'll be voting from the comfort of our own home computers.
Well, that's embarassing. We knew that Rudy Guiliani's two kids are estranged from him since he dumped their mother for his mistress (and now third wife), but this is just humiliating for the candidate. According to her Facebook page, Rudy's daughter Caroline supports Barack Obama for president, not her own father. She lists her political affiliation as liberal and -- up until reporters started hounding her this morning -- was a member of the Barack Obama support group "Barack Obama (One Million Strong for Barack)." After Slate broke the story and reporters started calling and emailing her, Caroline removed the mention of the Obama support group, but still lists herself as a liberal.
Rudy has not attended any of Caroline's high school events, although he did show up at her graduation. But he didn't even speak to his daughter nor did he participate in the graduation festivities with his ex-family. Guiliani's son, Andrew, who is a junior at Duke, has not been shy in telling reporters how unhappy he is with his father's behavior towards his mother and his family. Andrew has also discussed how he objects to his father's marriage to Judith Nathan.
You remember Judith, right? The week before 9/11, the cover of People magazine screamed "The Mayor, His Wife and His Mistress." The story went on to detail how Rudy moved his mistress into Gracie Mansion, humiliating his wife and children. Rudy can yell "9/11 Changed Everything!" all he wants on TV, but Rudy's kids don't seem impressed.
By contrast, Chelsea Clinton is always by her mother's side and is a passionate, poised and polished speaker on her mother's behalf.
It does not look good to voters when your own family doesn't think you're qualified to be president. You just know John McCain thinks the whole thing is hilarious.
