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MediaCynic.com Homepage | Polls

Majority of Americans Unhappy With Direction of Country

This is some bad news for any politician in office now: 81% of Americans think the country is on the wrong track. That's a lot of unhappy Americans.
Americans are more dissatisfied with the country's direction than at any time since the New York Times/CBS News poll began asking about the subject in the early 1990s, according to the latest poll. In the poll, 81 percent of respondents said they believed “things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track," up from 69 percent a year ago and 35 percent in early 2002. Although the public mood has been darkening since the early days of the war in Iraq, it has taken a new turn for the worse in the last few months, as the economy has seemed to slip into recession. There is now nearly a national consensus that the country faces significant problems.

A majority of nearly every demographic and political group — Democrats and Republicans, men and women, residents of cities and rural areas, college graduates and those who finished only high school — say the United States is headed in the wrong direction. Seventy-eight percent of respondents said the country was worse off than five years ago; just 4 percent said it was better off. The dissatisfaction is especially striking because public opinion usually hits its low point only in the months and years after an economic downturn, not at the beginning of one. Today, however, Americans report being deeply worried about the country even though many say their own personal finances are still in fairly good shape.

Only 21 percent of respondents said the overall economy was in good condition, the lowest such number since late 1992, when the recession that began in the summer of 1990 had already been over for more than a year. In the latest poll, two in three people said they believed the economy was in recession today.

The unhappiness presents clear risks for Republicans in this year's elections, given the continued unpopularity of President Bush. Twenty-eight percent of respondents said they approved of the job he was doing, a number that has barely changed since last summer. But Democrats, who have controlled the House and Senate since last year, also face the risk that unhappy voters will punish Congressional incumbents.
The Bush administration has wasted so much of taxpayers' money by borrowing billions from the Chinese to finance a disastrous war that the economic picture is looking quite grim. And what always happens when an administration swings too far right (in this case towards the idealistic, nonsensical neocon philosophy, certainly not towards fiscal conservatism)? Why, we swing back too far the other way. That's just human nature.

A survey of Barack Obama's statements on the economy are pretty disturbing. He has said he wants to double the capital gains rate and raise the FICA taxes that are so burdensome to small businesses and to wage earners. And that's just the beginning of what is starting to sound like the socialist economic playbook. As we head into a recession and jobs continue their flight overseas, the idea of raising taxes is irresponsible. Obama also wants to reinstate the death tax, which otherwise will expire at the end of 2010.

Obama claims that he will only raise taxes on the "rich" -- but he has had wildly varying definitions of what "rich" is. In one speech he talked about about families who make over $75,000. Tell a family with one $75,000 income and two children in New York that they are "rich". They'll think you are crazy. In another one of his word blizzards, he mentioned the sum of $200,000. Meanwhile, Michelle Obama has complained about how financially stretched they are -- and the Obamas made $991,296.00 in 2006. Are they "rich"?

Hillary Clinton has said she opposes raising employment taxes, and that she will freeze death taxes at their 2009 levels, which is a lot better than Obama's plan (death taxes are eliminated in 2010 and go back to the absurdly high 2002 rate in 2011 because the tax cuts were never made permanent). Death taxes are disastrous for family-owned businesses and small businesses. Hillary will roll back the part of the Bush tax cuts that give incentives for outsourcing American jobs overseas, which is a good thing. She will institute tax breaks for companies who create jobs in America, which is an excellent plan that addresses the biggest problem for the middle and working class: getting and keeping a job with a good salary and benefits. She will also roll back the tax cuts for families who make over $250,000 a year, which is better than Barack's plan, but still not a good idea.

As far as John McCain goes, who knows what he would do economically? He has said that he really doesn't understand the economy. He voted against the Bush tax cuts and now he says he supports them. This is a man who has drawn a government paycheck all of his life. He's never had to meet a payroll, withhold government taxes or raise funding. When asked what he would do, he used to answer "I'll be advised by Jack Kemp." Ok, great. So when is Jack Kemp going to talk about McCain's fiscal plans? One bright spot here is that McCain has made up with Mitt Romney. At least Mitt knows something about meeting a payroll and how burdensome taxes hurt small businesses, which are the backbone of the economy.

Posted on April 4, 2008
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Chart With March 4th State Polls

Here is a handy chart that shows the delegates up for grabs on March 4th. The chart also contains links to sources that will show you the latest polls for each state.

Democratic March 4th State Polls

StateDelegatesPoll Resources
Ohio141 Pollster | Real Clear Politics
Rhode Island21 Pollster | Real Clear Politics
Texas193 Pollster | Real Clear Politics
Vermont15 Pollster | Real Clear Politics


Republican March 4th State Polls

StateDelegatesPoll Resources
Ohio88 Pollster | Real Clear Politics
Rhode Island20 Pollster
Texas140 Pollster | Real Clear Politics
Vermont17* Pollster


W* = Winner take all state.


Posted on February 29, 2008
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Polls Puzzle as Super Tuesday Looms

Super Tuesday is tomorrow and the polls are looking pretty strange, especially on the Democratic side. In fact, they're all over the place. Several polls show Obama closing in on Hillary Clinton in California with a virtual tie, although a new Survey USA poll has her up by 12 and a new Zogby has Obama up by four (see all the latest California polls here). See all the most recent polls here.

Obama has definitely gotten a bounce in the past week, but the internals of most of the polls show an unusually high number of undecided voters, which has to be some kind of a first. Are there really that many Democrats who still haven't made up their minds between Clinton and Obama? Turnout will be key. If the women and Latino groups show up to vote in large numbers tomorrow, Clinton wins California. Her big state strategy will pay off and I think she will win the popular vote and the delegate count tomorrow. The question is by how much. It's not mathematically possible for either candidate to wrap up the nomination tomorrow, so we're in for a lot more campaigning.

On the Republican side, it seems clear that McCain is going to be pretty happy tomorrow night. Although according to the Secretary of State we may not know who won California until Wednesday, which is going to make for a pretty stressful evening for the campaigns (especially the Obama and Clinton campaigns). Mitt Romney was looking good in California in some polls, so the upset of the day would be a win for him there. That would be huge. Coming off his win in Maine, that would give him some sorely needed Mittmentum. But Huckabee is the real spoiler for Romney: he's racking up votes from Evangelicals and they like him in the South.

Without some surprises tomorrow, McCain will be heading towards a coronation. But, as the Patriots found out Sunday, it's not over till it's over.

Posted on February 4, 2008
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Chart With Delegates and Super Tuesday Polls

Here is a handy chart that shows the delegates up for grabs on Super Tuesday. The chart also contains links to sources that will show you the latest polls for each state.

Democratic Super Tuesday State Polls

StateDelegatesPoll Resources
Alabama68 Pollster | Real Clear Politics
Alaska18 No Data
American Samoa13 No Data
Arizona67 Pollster | Real Clear Politics
Arkansas47 Pollster
California441 Pollster | Real Clear Politics
Colorado71 Pollster | Real Clear Politics
Connecticut61 Pollster | Real Clear Politics
Delaware23 Pollster
Dems Abroad11 No Data
Georgia104 Pollster | Real Clear Politics
Idaho23 Pollster
Illinois185 Pollster | Real Clear Politics
Kansas40 Pollster | Real Clear Politics
Massachusetts121 Pollster | Real Clear Politics
Minnesota88 Pollster | Real Clear Politics
Missouri88 Pollster | Real Clear Politics
New Jersey127 Pollster | Real Clear Politics
New Mexico38 Pollster
New York280 Pollster | Real Clear Politics
North Dakota21 No Data
Oklahoma47 Pollster | Real Clear Politics
Tennessee85 Pollster | Real Clear Politics
Utah29 Pollster


Republican Super Tuesday State Polls

StateDelegatesPoll Resources
Alabama48 Pollster | Real Clear Politics
Alaska29No Data
Arizona53 W*Pollster | Real Clear Politics
Arkansas34Pollster
California173Pollster | Real Clear Politics
Colorado46Pollster | Real Clear Politics
Connecticut30 W*Pollster | Real Clear Politics
Delaware18 W*Pollster | Real Clear Politics
Georgia72Pollster | Real Clear Politics
Illinois70Pollster | Real Clear Politics
Massachusetts43Pollster | Real Clear Politics
Minnesota41Pollster | Real Clear Politics
Missouri58 W*Pollster | Real Clear Politics
Montana25 W*No Data
New Jersey52 W*Pollster | Real Clear Politics
New York101 W*Pollster | Real Clear Politics
North Dakota26No Data
Oklahoma41Pollster | Real Clear Politics
Tennessee55Pollster | Real Clear Politics
Utah36 W*Pollster
West Virginia30No Data


W* = Winner take all state.


Posted on February 1, 2008
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Tim Russert Looks at Florida and South Carolina Polls

Tim Russert looks at some of the latest poll numbers for the upcoming GOP race in Florida on the 29th and the Democratic race this weekend in South Carolina on the 26th. Mitt Romney has the edge over John McCain in this particular Florida poll. In South Carolina the poll has Barack Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. Russert points out one interesting statistic from this South Carolina poll - it shows Barack Obama getting nearly 60% of the black vote but just 10% of the white vote.



Posted on January 24, 2008
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Bush Poll Numbers Hit a New Low

As George Bush brushes up on his royal etiquette in preparation for Queen Elizabeth's visit and the most formal state dinner held during his administration, he can take consolation from the fact that the Queen is too refined to mention his horrifying low approval numbers. He's just matched Jimmy Carter by poling at a dismal 28% approval rating.
President George W. Bush's public approval rating fell to the lowest of his presidency and may be dragging down scores for Republican presidential hopefuls, according to a Newsweek poll. Bush's approval rating fell to 28 percent this week, the lowest since a similar score by President Jimmy Carter in 1979, the year of the Iran hostage crisis. The poll also found that 71 percent of Americans are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the U.S.

Almost two-thirds of those polled, 62 percent, said that Bush's actions in Iraq showed he was "stubborn and unwilling to admit his mistakes," the survey said. The poll also showed that all three leading Democratic contenders beat their Republican counterparts in head-to-head competition among registered voters.
Bush seems to take some kind of perverse pleasure in refusing to listen to the electorate. The American people have said over and over in polls that they want out of Iraq's civil war. But the president is too busy telling people how the increasing violence in Iraq somehow means that things are going great.

Posted on May 5, 2007
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Bush Poll Numbers At All-Time Low

After his lackluster performance during the State of the Union address, President Bush is now hit an all-time low in the polls. A new Newsweek poll puts the president's favorability rating at only 30%. It also reveals that 58% of Americans just wish the Bush presidency were over.
With Bush widely viewed as an ineffectual "lame duck" (by 71 percent of all Americans), over half (53 percent) of the poll's respondents now say they believe history will see him as a below-average president, up three points from last May. The first time this question was asked, in October 2003, as many people thought Bush would go down in history as an above average president as thought we would be regarded as below average (29 to 26 percent). Only 22 percent of those polled think Bush's decisions about Iraq and other major policy are influenced mainly by the facts; 67 percent say the president's decisions are influenced more by his personal beliefs.

This perhaps explains why only about half (49 percent) of adult Americans even bothered to watch or listen to any of the State of the Union speech as it happened. Of those, less than half (42 percent) think his energy, health care and other domestic policy proposals are likely to be seriously considered by the new Democratic-controlled Congress. Overall, 61 percent are unsatisfied with the way things are going in America; just 30 percent are satisfied.
These are numbers that no one in the West Wing wants to see. When the majority of the country sees you as a lame duck who will go down in history as a below-average president, it's unlikely that you'll get any of your legislation passed. Which is a good thing, considering Bush's latest insane proposal: taxing the health benefits that workers receive from corporations that are over $15,000 a year. The idea that giving a tax break to uninsured Americans who go out and buy their own insurance is going to help is ludicrous. Anyone who has tried to get health insurance on his own without being part of a large corporate pool knows how expensive -- and how pathetic -- the coverage is.

Giving an unemployed person a tax break doesn't put money is his pocket -- but it does put money in the pockets of the big insurance companies. Well, at least Bush is consistent in his absolute contempt for the American middle class worker.

Posted on January 27, 2007
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Bush Poll Numbers Continue to Fall

Even a genuine terror scare failed to jump start President Bush's dismal poll ratings. A recent Zogby poll puts Bush's approval rating at only 34%. And what's really bad is the "Wal-Mart Shoppers Poll" which shows his support at only 45%. Zogby discovered that Wal-Mart shoppers overwhelmingly supported President Bush in the last election.
President Bush’s job approval rating dipped two points in the last three weeks, despite the foiling of an airline terror plot and the adoption of a cease–fire deal between Israel and Hezbollah forces in Lebanon, a new Zogby International telephone poll shows.

*****

The numbers continue to reflect erosion in the President’s political base – just 62% of Republicans give him positive marks for his job performance, while 38% give him negative marks. Even among weekly WalMart shoppers – a demographic group identified by Pollster John Zogby as a critical support group for Bush – just 45% now give him positive job marks, though his numbers among those shoppers have improved 10 points since early June.

*****

One third of respondents – 34% – said that, overall, the nation is headed in the right direction, while 59% said they think things are off on the wrong track.
When nearly 60% of the voting public thinks the country is headed in the wrong direction and the Wal-Mart vote is slipping away, it's time for the RNC to start worrying. Joe Lieberman's defeat in the Connecticut Democratic primary sent shockwaves throughout the Republican party. In fact, the White House has refused to officially support the Republican candidate in the upcoming Senate race, preferring to quietly back Lieberman in his wrong-headed refusal to give up his Senate seat. That has to be infuriating for Republican candidate Alan Schlesinger who is polling at a dismal 6% in a three-way race.

Clearly, the White House would prefer the pro-war, pro-Bush, pro-neocon Lieberman to keep his senate seat which Lieberman now must chase after as an Independent candidate. The Connecticut senate race is going to be one of the most watched races in the upcoming midterms. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. One thing's for sure, Lieberman isn't winning any friends in his own party with his vow to run as an Independent, after his own party picked millionaire entrepeneur (and former Republican) Ned Lamont.

Posted on August 16, 2006
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Poll Lists George W. Bush As Worst President In Last 61 Years

In a recent Quinnepac poll American voters named George W. Bush as the worst president in the last 61 years, with a negative rating that is twice that of Richard M. Nixon.
Bush is named by 34 percent of voters, followed by Richard Nixon at 17 percent and Bill Clinton at 16 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. Leading the list for best President since 1945 is Ronald Reagan with 28 percent, and Clinton with 25 percent.

President Bush is ranked worst by 56 percent of Democrats, 35 percent of independent voters and 7 percent of Republicans, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Best ranking for Reagan comes from 56 percent of Republicans, 7 percent of Democrats and 25 percent of independent voters. Among American voters 18 - 29 years old, Clinton leads the "best" list with 40 percent.

*****

A total of 38 percent of voters are "very satisfied" or "somewhat satisfied" with the way things are going in the nation today, while 62 percent are "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied," matching the previous satisfaction low point from March 2.

In an open-ended question, where respondents can give any answer, 16 percent of voters say the war in Iraq is the most important problem facing the U.S. today, down from 23 percent in March. Another 12 percent list economic issues and 11 percent list immigration, the first time this issued has hit double digits in a national poll. American voters say 56 - 39 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do.
Will these numbers turn to the Democrats' advantage in the November midterms? It's still too early to tell, but one interesting indicator is the number of Republican incumbents in Congress who are carefully distancing themselves from the White House as they begin their campaigns.

Posted on June 1, 2006
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Zogby Poll Shows Americans' Doubts About 9/11 Investigation

A new Zogby poll has some surprising information about Americans' beliefs about the 9/11 attacks and the subsequent investigation.
In the telephone survey of 1200 individuals, just 47% agreed that "the 9/11 attacks were thoroughly investigated and that any speculation about US government involvement is nonsense." Almost as many, 45%, indicated they were more likely to agree "that so many unanswered questions about 9/11 remain that Congress or an International Tribunal should re-investigate the attacks, including whether any US government officials consciously allowed or helped facilitate their success."

The poll is the first survey that has attempted to gauge the level of Americans' doubts about 9/11 and was carried out for the "9/11: Revealing the Truth, Reclaiming Our Future" conference to be held in Chicago in June. Not surprisingly, Republicans as a group were the most supportive of existing investigations, with 70% expressing their satisfaction -- about the same percentage that has expressed approval of Bush's performance in recent polls. Sixty-four percent of those earning over $75,000 were also skeptical of doubts about 9/11. The groups most likely to want the attacks re-investigated were Hispanics at 67% and African-Americans at 64%.

*****

When asked specificially if they thought there had been a government coverup of evidence that contradicts the official story, the results were again not far from an even split, with 48% rejecting the idea of a deliberate coverup and 42% supporting it. Belief in a coverup was the majority position among Democrats, 18-29 year olds, and a few other groups.

In an attempt to focus more specifically on the attitudes of those who were best informed about the events of 9/11, the poll asked its responders if they were aware of WTC Building 7, whose collapse on September 11 for no obvious reason was not investigated by the 9/11 Commission. Only 52% answered that they were aware of the collapse of Building 7, but out of that subgroup, 73% believed it should have been investigated.
That is quite a large number of Americans who think that the 9/11 investigation was cursory at best, and that a more thorough investigaton should have been done.

Posted on May 24, 2006
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Bush Tells The O.C. That He Was Diplomatic To The Max

President Bush spoke today to business leaders in Orange County, Califoria and managed to thoroughly confuse everyone present.
President Bush today said he had tried to avoid war with Iraq "diplomatically to the max." Speaking to a business group in Irvine, Ca., he admitted mistakes were made in planning for the Iraq invasion, but he defended the troop level, saying "it was the troop level necessary to do the job," and he would commit the same number if given a second chance.

The remarks came as another former general joined seven others who in recent days have called for the resignation of Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld, saying he had mismanaged the planning and execution of the war. Bush also explained, in unusually stark terms, how his belief in God influences his foreign policy. "I base a lot of my foreign policy decisions on some things that I think are true," he said. "One, I believe there's an Almighty. And, secondly, I believe one of the great gifts of the Almighty is the desire in everybody's soul, regardless of what you look like or where you live, to be free.

"I believe liberty is universal. I believe people want to be free. And I know that democracies do not war with each other." A new CNN poll released today shows Bush with his lowest approval rating in any poll so far, at 32%.
What in the world is he talking about? Democracies don't go to war with each other? That news comes a bit of surprise to England, France, Mexico, the United States, Croatia and Yugoslavia, just to name a few democratic countries who at various times in history fought wars with other democracies. This is all part of the "forcibly spreading American ideas of democracy across the Middle East whether they want it or not" meme, which as far as I can tell isn't exactly going so well. (Just ask the Sunnis or the Kurds.)

Was the reason for stating that he tried avoid war with Iraq "diplomatically to the max" that he was in the O.C. and thought he'd try some Valley-speak? If so, it didn't work. The more he talks, the lower his poll numbers drop. Today, his approval is at 32% and still falling.

Posted on April 25, 2006
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Buyer's Remorse: Kerry Would Beat Bush Easily If Election Were Held Today

A new Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll shows that if the 2004 presidential election were held again today, John Kerry would easily win.
The outcome of the 2004 United States presidential election would be different if a new ballot took place this year, according to a poll by Bloomberg and the Los Angeles Times. 47 per cent of respondents would vote for Democrat John Kerry, while 40 per cent would support Republican George W. Bush.

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the U.S. Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia. As far as the popular vote is concerned, Bush garnered 51.03 per cent of all cast ballots, with Kerry getting 48.04 per cent.

In a January 2005 interview with NBC’s Tim Russert, Kerry expressed satisfaction with his campaign, saying, "I won the youth vote. I won the independent vote. I won the moderate vote. If you take half the people at an Ohio State football game on Saturday afternoon and they were to have voted the other way, you and I would be having a discussion today about my State of the Union speech."

On Apr. 20, Kerry discussed the possibility of a presidential bid in 2008, saying, "I will make that decision before the end of the year but I’m thinking about it hard." The Massachusetts senator jokingly added, "If you can help me find 60,000 votes in Ohio."

Polling Data:

Regardless of how you may have voted in the presidential election in November 2004, knowing what you know today, would you vote for George W. Bush or John Kerry if the presidential election was being held today?

John Kerry (D) 47%

George W. Bush (R) 40%

Someone else 6%
If the Kerry campaign had responded quickly and aggressively to the cowardly, lying scum who were behind the Swift Boat Smear Campaign, things would have turned out differently. Kerry said during the campaign that his team had to be perfect in order to win. He was right. His team did everything right -- except for that slow response, and it killed the campaign. If Kerry had gone on TV and said "You bet I testified before Congress about the My Lai massacre and I'd do it again today because it was the right thing to do" and then boldly attacked those who questioned his patriotism and service in Viet Nam, Rove would not have gotten the upper hand.

I'll never forget the Democratic convention and Kerry's inspiring biopic, which highlighted his military service and years of public service as a prosecutor who helped take down organized crime. Contrast that with George Bush's biopic which showcased Bush's most courageous moment: once, the Secret Service made him wear a bulletproof vest while he threw out a pitch at a baseball game after 9/11. Yawn.

This is what we call Buyer's Remorse.

Posted on April 22, 2006
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Gallup Poll: Americans Suspicious of Bush's Role in Plamegate

A new Gallup poll reveals that the American public is not happy over President Bush's leaking of classified intelligence to punish the wife of a war critic. In fact, a majority believes Bush did something illegal or unethical.
A new Gallup poll released today finds that most Americans are critical of President Bush's actions in the Plame/CIA leak scandal, but only one in four is following the matter closely.

Overall, 63% of Americans believe Bush did something either illegal (21%) or unethical (42%), while 28% say he did nothing wrong. While many more Democrats are critical, 3 in 10 Republicans also find that Bush did something illegal or unethical. The more closely people are following the issue, the more likely they are to say he did something illegal rather than merely unethical.

The poll, conducted April 7-9, 2006, shows that just 25% of Americans are following the matter "very" closely, while another 39% are following the issue "somewhat" closely. Another 36% are not following the issue closely at all. Despite the latest turns in the CIA leak case, and news from Iraq, the president's overall approval rating did not fall still further, hanging on at 37%, which is in line with most other polls.
Plamegate is an easier to follow scandal than most for the public. The White House was mad at Ambassador Wilson for refusing to lie and say that Saddam Hussein was trying to buy yellowcake uranium from Niger, so they outed his wife Valerie Plame as covert CIA agent. Her cover was blown, her career was over and -- naturally -- her husband was furious. So he penned that incendiary Op-Ed piece in the New York Times about what was done to his wife. The CIA gave him permission to write the Op-Ed and the word is that the covert division of the CIA is still livid that the White House would blow one of its operative's cover for political gain.

Aside from the obvious "treason in wartime" issue, it's a really bad idea to start blowing agents' covers just because you don't like their spouses. It has emerged that Valerie Plame was working on the Iran/nuclear weapons issue at the time her cover was blown. She had many years' experience, but she has now left the agency. Plame is a valuable asset who was wasted; she is yet another casualty of the lies and deception of the administration during the run-up to the Iraq War.

Posted on April 11, 2006
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More Americans Now Call Themselves Democrats

A new Gallup poll shows that more Americans now consider themselves Democrats than Republicans, with 33% considering themselves Democrats. 32% consider themselves Republicans and 34% consider themselves Independents.
Republicans had gained the upper hand in recent years, but 33% of Americans, in the latest Gallup poll, now call themselves Democrats, with those favoring the GOP one point behind. But Gallup says this widens a bit more "once the leanings of Independents are taken into account."

Independents now make up 34% of the population. When asked if they lean in a certain direction, their answers pushed the Democrat numbers to 49% with Republicans at 42%. One year ago, the parties were dead even at 46% each. This shift indicates, Gallup says, why its polls show Democrats leading in this year's congressional races. The latest poll was taken from January to March 2006, with a national sample of about 1,000 adults.
Ten years ago, almost no one called himself an Independent. This is a direct result of the hijacking of the Republican party by the religious right. Most people originally joined the Republican party because they oppose big government, deficits, government interference in private matters, and burdensome taxes on small business and the middle class.

As Governor Christine Todd Whitman notes in her recent book, It's My Party, Too: The Battle for the Heart of the GOP and the Future of America, the religious right has turned the GOP into the party that wants a theocracy in which the government dictates policy on social and health issues, while running the largest deficits in American history. The result is a flight to the ideological middle and the creation of a large voting block of Independent voters who don't have party loyalty in the least: all they care about is a candidate's stance on the issues that matter to them.

Now we'll see if anyone in 2008 can turn that voting block into a political base.

Posted on March 29, 2006
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You Know Your Poll Numbers Are Bad When....

A new Pew Research Center poll shows President Bush's approval ratings are at an all-time low.
Deep doubts about the Iraq war and pessimism about America's future have shattered public confidence in President George W. Bush and helped drive his approval ratings to their lowest level ever, pollsters say. As Bush launched a series of speeches to drum up support for the war, a new round of opinion polls found growing skepticism about Iraq and distrust of Bush. His image declined sharply, with one poll finding "incompetent" to be the most frequent description of his leadership.

Bush's approval rating dipped as low as 33 percent in one recent poll after a string of bad news for the White House, including uproars over a now-dead Arab port deal, a secret eavesdropping program, a series of ethics scandals involving high-profile Republicans and a bungled response to Hurricane Katrina. The political storm has left Bush's second-term legislative agenda in tatters, threatened Republican control of the U.S. Congress in November's elections and shredded his personal image as an effective leader.

"His strong points as a president were being seen as personally credible, as a strong leader. That has all but disappeared," said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center, whose latest independent poll found a dramatic decline in Bush's credibility. A majority of Americans, 56 percent, believe Bush is "out of touch," the poll found. When asked for a one-word description of Bush, the most frequent response was "incompetent," followed by "good," "idiot" and "liar." In February 2005, the most frequent reply was "honest." "The transformation from being seen as honest to being seen as incompetent is an extraordinary indicator of how far he has fallen," Kohut said.

*****

A recent CBS poll found 66 percent of the public believed the country was headed down the wrong track, while a Harris Interactive poll put the number at 60 percent. Views on Iraq and the war on terrorism were equally pessimistic, with 67 percent of respondents in the CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll saying Bush did not have a clear plan for handling Iraq. Independent pollster Dick Bennett of American Research Group said Bush's failure to acknowledge public anxieties added to his troubles. "The biggest problem the White House faces is reconnecting with people. People simply aren't buying it anymore," Bennett said. "People can see for themselves that things actually are not fine."
You know your poll numbers are bad when even pop star Jessica Simpson turns you down for dinner. Now that's embarassing.

Posted on March 17, 2006
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Poll Numbers Roll In

Some polling numbers have been rolling in, giving us a taste of what other Americans are thinking. The troops think it's time to get out of Iraq, civilians think that handing our ports over to the UAE is a stupid idea and most everyone is displeased with President Bush. And don't even ask about Dick Cheney's poll numbers: they're abysmal with only 18% of Americans approving of the job he is doing. Here are the actual numbers:
  • A Zogby poll reports that 72% of American troops serving in Iraq think the U.S. should exit the country within the next year, and more than one in four say the troops should leave immediately,
  • A CBS poll puts President Bush at a 34% approval rating. The same poll reported that 70% of Americans (including 58% of Republicans) do not want U.S. ports turned over to Dubai World Ports. This poll is the one that put Dick Cheney's approval rating at a bargain basemet 18%, which surely has to be some kind of record for a sitting vice-president. Although Spiro Agnew may have given Cheney a run for his money.
  • A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll puts President Bush at a 39% approval rating. 59% said President Bush can no longer manage the government effectively, which is hardly a vote of confidence. That same poll revealed that only 9% of Americans think the United States should take military action against Iran; 68% favor diplomatic and economic action to keep Iran away from atomic weapons.
As far as the Dubai ports deal goes, there was a bit of shocking news today: the economic minister of the UAE threatened the U.S., saying that if the ports deal doesn't go through the UAE is going to stop investing in the U.S. -- and hinted that other Arab countries might do the same.

Great. Now they're threatening financial sanctions against U.S. companies if they don't get their their hands on our ports? Why am I reminded of the films The Godfather and Goodfellas?

Posted on March 2, 2006
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Gallup Poll Has Warnings For Senators on Alito

A new Gallup Poll should serve as a warning to senators as they consider their strategy for handling the Alito nomination. The poll finds that Americans are lukewarm on Alito to begin with, but if it becomes clear that he would vote to overturn Roe vs. Wade, then they strongly oppose him. Furthermore, if the Democrats decide to filibuster Alito, the American people don't mind at all: 50% support a filibuster, while 40% oppose it.
Gallup said that about the same number of Americans rate Alito's selection either excellent or good (43%) as rate it fair or poor (39%). Harriet Miers initially received a very similar rating, but John Roberts' rating was more positive: 51% excellent or good, 34% fair or poor.

*****

--"If it becomes clear Alito would vote to reverse the abortion ruling Roe v. Wade, Americans would not want the Senate to confirm him, by 53% to 37%."

--"If most Senate Democrats oppose the nomination and decide to filibuster against Alito, 50% of Americans believe they would be justified, while 40% say they would not."

Gallup said results are based on telephone interviews with 603 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Nov. 1, 2005, with sampling error at ±4 percentage points.
It is very clear that Alito is rabidly anti-choice. The White House is trying to spin his record as moderate on abortion rights, but it just won't wash. This guy has a miles-long paper trail, and there's nowhere to hide.

Posted on November 2, 2005
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Newsweek: Bush Blew It

Newsweek doesn't mince any words in a new article entitled "How Bush Blew It," which lays out in detail the absolutely pathetic response of the White House to Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath. Apparently, his own aides are terrified to give Bush any bad news, and he's surrounded by yes men -- and women.
It's a standing joke among the president's top aides: who gets to deliver the bad news? Warm and hearty in public, Bush can be cold and snappish in private, and aides sometimes cringe before the displeasure of the president of the United States, or, as he is known in West Wing jargon, POTUS. The bad news on this early morning, Tuesday, Aug. 30, some 24 hours after Hurricane Katrina had ripped through New Orleans, was that the president would have to cut short his five-week vacation by a couple of days and return to Washington. The president's chief of staff, Andrew Card; his deputy chief of staff, Joe Hagin; his counselor, Dan Bartlett, and his spokesman, Scott McClellan, held a conference call to discuss the question of the president's early return and the delicate task of telling him. Hagin, it was decided, as senior aide on the ground, would do the deed.

*****

How this could be—how the president of the United States could have even less "situational awareness," as they say in the military, than the average American about the worst natural disaster in a century—is one of the more perplexing and troubling chapters in a story that, despite moments of heroism and acts of great generosity, ranks as a national disgrace.

President George W. Bush has always trusted his gut. He prides himself in ignoring the distracting chatter, the caterwauling of the media elites, the Washington political buzz machine. He has boasted that he doesn't read the papers. His doggedness is often admirable. It is easy for presidents to overreact to the noise around them.

But it is not clear what President Bush does read or watch, aside from the occasional biography and an hour or two of ESPN here and there. Bush can be petulant about dissent; he equates disagreement with disloyalty. After five years in office, he is surrounded largely by people who agree with him. Bush can ask tough questions, but it's mostly a one-way street. Most presidents keep a devil's advocate around. Lyndon Johnson had George Ball on Vietnam; President Ronald Reagan and Bush's father, George H.W. Bush, grudgingly listened to the arguments of Budget Director Richard Darman, who told them what they didn't wish to hear: that they would have to raise taxes. When Hurricane Katrina struck, it appears there was no one to tell President Bush the plain truth: that the state and local governments had been overwhelmed, that the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) was not up to the job and that the military, the only institution with the resources to cope, couldn't act without a declaration from the president overriding all other authority.
The article goes on to describe the scene aboard Air Force One when New Orleans Mayor Nagin, Governor Blanco, senators, congressmen and President Bush had a meeting described by one of those participating as being "as blunt as you can get without the Secret Service getting involved." Bush's response to each new description of the horror on the ground was to turn to an aide and say "fix it." But no one could figure out who was in charge, no one at FEMA had any experience with major disasters and by the time the military was finally involved (the only organization that actually had the supplies and resources to respond to the overwhelming devastation and civil disorger), the people of New Orleans had suffered for days without water or food.

In a related story, it looks like Bush's approval rating has hit an all time low: just 38% of Americans approve of how he's doing his job.

Posted on September 12, 2005
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Bush, Polls and Blame

So, now that it's quite apparent to everyone that the response to Hurricane Katrina was an unmitigated disaster, who will the American public blame? Media Matters reports on a misleading poll that seems to indicate that no one really blames President Bush for the the situation.
In a September 7 article by staff writer Dan Balz, The Washington Post reported that Americans are "dividing along sharply partisan lines in their judgment" of President Bush's and the federal government's handling of Hurricane Katrina, which Balz called the "opposite" of the reaction of "national unity" Americans had to the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. But in concluding that assessments of the administration's performance were largely based on political affiliation, Balz relied on a flawed Post/ABC News poll and ignored other polling data suggesting that independents -- and possibly even Republicans -- are critical of Bush's response to the natural disaster.

Balz wrote that the September 2 Post/ABC News poll "illustrates the point vividly" that reactions to Bush's handling of Katrina divide along partisan lines because "[j]ust 17 percent of Democrats said they approved of the way Bush was handling the Katrina crisis while 74 percent of Republicans said they approved." The poll also found that 48 percent of independents disapprove of Bush's response to Katrina, compared with 44 percent who approve. But as Media Matters for America has noted, the Post/ABC News poll is flawed because its sample size was small, producing an increased margin of error, and its results were also potentially skewed because it was taken on the Friday evening of a national holiday weekend, likely altering the demographics of its respondents.
It probably is too early to see how the Katrina response is going to play out politically. Right wingers are blaming Louisiana Governor Blanco and New Orleans Mayor Nagin. Moderates, Democrats and centrist Republicans seem to be blaming the incredibly incompetent head of FEMA, Michael Brown (or "Brownie" as President Bush calls him). At least one major newspaper has called for the firing of all top FEMA officials. Which is the very least that should happen.

Posted on September 7, 2005
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Bush Sinks in Harris Poll

The Wall Street Journal reports that a new Harris Poll shows that President Bush' approval ratings are the lowest yet of his presidency. Only 40% of American adults approve of the way President Bush is doing his job; 58% of Americans disapprove.
This is a decline from two months ago, when the president's ratings were 45% positive and 55% negative. The war in Iraq and the economy climbed to the top of a list of issues Americans say are most important for the U.S. to address. Social Security declined sharply.

At the same time, Vice President Dick Cheney's approval ratings slipped to 35% from 38% in June, while Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's approval ratings dropped to 40% from 42%. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is the only cabinet member whose approval ratings rose, to 57% from 52% in June.

***

Americans were also asked in the poll to name the two most important issues that the U.S. government needs to address. When considering the most important issues, 41% of those polled say the war is most important, sharply higher than 24% in June. The second most important issue is the economy, the poll showed.
The American people want to trust their president when it comes to the reasons for going to war. But no WMD have been found. London has been attacked, although they're "fighting them there so they don't have to fight them at home", and there appears to be no Iraqi George Washington riding up on an Arabian stallion to fight for a democratic constitution that guarantees a secular government and equal rights for women. To make things worse, Iraq -- although sitting on a sea of oil second in size only to that of Saudi Arabia -- isn't exporting oil right now because of insurgent attacks on the pieplines. And pump prices in the U.S. are edging towards $3/gallon. Look for those aproval numbers to continue to fall as the body count and oil prices both continue to rise.

Posted on August 25, 2005
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Political Roundup 7-13-05

  • Blogs offered the best first draft of last week's bombings in London. Arianna Huffington said the bombings discredit the Bush adminstration's fly paper theory for the Iraq War.

  • The Bush administration says the U.S. will retain control of the Internet's root servers canceling plans to turn control over to the UN on September, 2006. Some are concerned this could cause the Internet to splinter off into multiple internets.

  • Stars and Stripes reports that this year's desertion numbers of 2,518 are already almost as high as the count for all of last year, which was 2,723.

  • Greg Mitchelle at Editor and Publisher asks if Dick Cheney is the new Baghdad Bob:
    Is it just me, or is Vice President Cheney starting to sound like another balding, rose-colored-glasses wearing war spokesman, Muhammed Saeed al-Sahaf, better known as "Baghdad Bob"?

    Yesterday, after a week of serious criticism, for claiming that the insurgency in Iraq was in its "last throes," Cheney refused to back down, even after Gen. John Abizaid, our top military commander for the Middle East, proclaimed that the insurgency, in fact, was as strong as ever, and "a lot of work" remained to be done to defeat it. Earlier this week, GOP Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska had said he was sick of sunny assertions about the war from the White House, and declared that the United States indeed might be losing, not on the edge of victory.

    Yet Cheney said on Thursday, "If you look at what the dictionary says about 'throes,' it can still be a violent period." He compared this time to the end of World War II when tough battles "occurred just a few months before the end. I see this as a similar situation." Give this man a beret!

    Is it time to start calling him "D.C. Dick"? Or "Baghdad Dick"? Or perhaps "Bunker Bob"?
  • Elizabeth Edwards, the wife of 2004 Vice Presedential candidate John Edwards, is writing a book and a book proposal is being shown now to publishers.

  • This map provides a graphical representation of where the service men and women that have died in Afghanistan and Iraq were from in the U.S.

  • Caspar Weinberger, a two-term Secretary of Defense under Ronald Reagan, has penned a thriller novel with Peter Schweizer called Chain of Command.

  • Eclectech.co.uk offers a humorous take on Britain's need for national ID cards.

  • More liberals believe in ghosts than moderates or conservatives according to an important new Gallup Poll.

  • Schwarzenegger on Global Warming: California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger says that the science is accurate and that the time to fight global warming is now. He is implementing a new greenhouse gas law in California. In a recent speech he said despite what others, including the Bush administration, have said helping the environment does not hurt the economy.
    These steps are great for the environment and great for our economy, too. Many people have falsely assumed that you have to choose between protecting the environment and protecting the economy. Nothing could be further from the truth. In California, we will do both.

    That is why I am travelling around the state and my administration is holding a series of conservation summits for businesses around California, spreading the word that pollution reduction is good.

    Pollution reduction has long been a money saver for businesses. It lowers operating costs, raises profits and creates new and expanded markets for environmental technology.
  • New York Senator Charles Schumer and others have been very critical of the upcoming 25 to Life game. Schumer calls 25 to Life a "cop killer" game and wants it boycotted. The multi-player online game allows players to become a gangster or a law officer.

    Posted on July 13, 2005
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  • Political Roundup 6-26-05

  • Arianna Huffington questions whether Cheney's recent hospital visit was really about an old football knee injury.
  • John Kerry's office has released a copy of his letter to the Senate Intelligence Committee requesting an investigation of pre-war Iraq intelligence failures (and the Downing Street Memo) to LightUpTheDarkness.org.
  • Think Progress has a list of Bush Administration report white-outs.
  • Iraq is "hard work" -- sound familiar? The Washington Post picked up on the hard work theme in Bush's comments during a meeting with new Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim Jafari:
    Bush alluded to high levels of difficulty no fewer than 19 times in his 33-minute appearance. The Iraqi government faces "monumental tasks," he said. "The way ahead is not going to be easy." In case somebody napped through that, he repeated: "It's difficult. . . . It's tough work, and it's hard."
  • Wesley Clark won the first DailyKos straw poll for 2008 Democratic presidential candidate. The poll had 13,000 votes. No Freakin' Clue came in second.
  • More on the Downing Street Memo: The U.S. tried to provoke Saddam into a War according to this L.A. Times opinion piece.
  • CBS News plans to embrace blogs and transform into a web-centric news model.
  • Atrios says that Karl Rove's recent attack on liberals was a a new strategy on Iraq to blame the critics for the War's problems. The Carpetbagger Report says that the calls for Rove to apologize or resign are "clearly justified."
  • The Freedom Jeep, a 2005 Jeep Wrangler X with a patriotic design, has been placed for auction on eBay. The proceeds are being donated to the United Service Organizations (USO). The jeep has been signed by political and business leaders.
  • A Silent Cacophony reports on the Defense Department's plans to create a database of high school students at a time when military enlistments are dropping.
  • The winners of the 2005 Freedom Blog Awards have been announced by Reporters Without Borders. The awards were given to blogs that defend freedom of expression. They were created to draw attention to countries where the traditional press is under the control of the authorities.

    Posted on June 26, 2005
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  • Bush Poll Numbers Continue Their Freefall

    The new CBS News/New York Times poll came out today and the news is bad for Bush. Six months into his second term, his "political capital" account appears about to be overdrawn.
  • Only 39 percent approve of his handling of the economy.
  • Only 39 percent approve of his handling of foreign policy.
  • Only 37 percent approve of his handling of the war in Iraq.
  • Only 25 percent approve of his handling of Social Security.
  • Only the campaign against terrorism gets the approval of more than half those questioned.

    The biggest drop off is among Americans aged 30 to 44. In just the past month, his approval rating in that group has fallen 14 points. In the most serious split over the president's Iraq policy, two Republican House members joined with Democrats Thursday urging President Bush to start bringing U.S. troops home from Iraq in October of 2006.

    [I]t is another crack in the once iron grip President Bush held over Congress. His Social Security plan is stalled, his energy bill languishing, his nominee for U.N. ambassador uncertain. And he's threatened to veto two measures passed by the Republican-controlled House -- on stem cell research and limitations to the Patriot Act.
  • Republican congressmen and women aren't stupid. They know that Iraq and the economy will loom large in the midterms. As will social security, stem cell research and an uneasiness over the Schiavo debacle. It's time to distance themselves from the White House's unpopular positions on these issues.

    Posted on June 16, 2005
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    Cognitive Dissonance About Iraq

    The Washington Post leads today with an article about the increasing disconnect between the worrisome events in Iraq and the giddy optimism maintained by the White House about how the war is going.
    President Bush's portrayal of a wilting insurgency in Iraq at a time of escalating violence and insecurity throughout the country is reviving the debate over the administration's Iraq strategy and the accuracy of its upbeat claims.

    While Bush and Vice President Cheney offer optimistic assessments of the situation, a fresh wave of car bombings and other attacks killed 80 U.S. soldiers and more than 700 Iraqis last month alone and prompted Iraqi leaders to appeal to the administration for greater help. Privately, some administration officials have concluded the violence will not subside through this year.

    The disconnect between Rose Garden optimism and Baghdad pessimism, according to government officials and independent analysts, stems not only from Bush's focus on tentative signs of long-term progress but also from the shrinking range of policy options available to him if he is wrong. Having set out on a course of trying to stand up a new constitutional, elected government with the security firepower to defend itself, Bush finds himself locked into a strategy that, even if it proves successful, foreshadows many more deadly months to come first, analysts said.
    Dick Cheney tells us that the insurgency is "in its last throes." Funny how none of the military's top brass are willing to say anything like that.
    Military commanders in Iraq privately told a visiting congressional delegation last week that the United States is at least two years away from adequately training a viable Iraqi military but that it is no longer reasonable to consider augmenting U.S. troops already strained by the two-year operation, said Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D-Del.). "The idea that the insurgents are on the run and we are about to turn the corner, I did not hear that from anybody," Biden said in an interview.
    Meanwhile, only 37% of Americans approve of President Bush's handling of Iraq and the percentage of Americans who don't think the war was worth it is 51% and has been rising with each poll. This cognitive dissonance among voters is going to end sometime, with the public either choosing to believe the White House or to believe the increasingly unpalatable facts about Iraq.

    And given the fact that the Army now says that its greatest impediment to recruitment is the
    opposition by the parents of potential recruits, it looks like parents are choosing to ignore the White House entirely on its assessment of Iraq.

    Posted on June 6, 2005
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    Poll Numbers Dropping for Bush and Congress

    MSNBC reports on the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, and the numbers are not good news for either President Bush or Congress. The American public is unhappy with Bush, Congress and the priorities they are pursuing. A majority of Americans think that Congress should be focusing on the economy, gas prices and healthcare, not privatizing Social Security or battling over judges. In fact, a majority of Americans want the Senate to decide the fitness of each nominee to be a judge on its own and not just rubber stamp the White House's nominations. That's not good news for Frist and the anti-filibusterers.
    The survey, which polled 1,005 adults from May 12-16 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, also has some troubling findings for President Bush. Just 20 percent of those polled say the economy has gotten better over the past 12 months, an 11- point decline since January; 51 percent believe that removing Saddam Hussein from power was not worth the cost and casualties of that war; and only 36 percent support Bush’s plan to allow workers to invest their Social Security contributions in the stock market.

    Most don't support blanket approval for judges That Social Security figure, which is virtually unchanged from April, is significant because it suggests that Bush hasn’t moved the country any closer to supporting private accounts despite his months-long campaign for them.

    Regarding the contentious debate over Bush’s judicial nominees, just 34 percent say the Senate should generally confirm the president’s judicial picks as long as they are honest and competent, while 56 percent argue that the Senate should make its own decision about the fitness of each nominee to serve.

    Overall, according to the NBC/Journal poll, 52 percent believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction, while 35 percent think it’s on the right track.

    All of these findings, Hart says, are signs of an angry electorate. "If you are a member of Congress and you got the poll back, you better be looking over your shoulder," he said. "The masses are not happy."
    This poll reports that 47% of Americans want the Democrats to take over Congress in 2006, versus 40% who want Republicans to stay in charge. It's still too early to say if those numbers will hold until the midterms. But one thing's for sure: if James Dobson continues his Svengali-like hold on Frist and the Senate's agenda, things could go ill for Republicans in 2006.

    Posted on May 19, 2005
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    Bush's New Twist on Social Security: Cut Benefits for the Middle Class

    Well, that was a bit of an eye-opener. Last night, President Bush announced the fuzzy outlines of his plans to revamp social security. He doesn't have all the kinks worked out yet, but here are the linchpins of the plan: 1) tie benefits to prices (that is, inflation), not wages, which would produce a hefty cut in guaranteed benefits over time, 2) reduce benefits for the middle class and so-called wealthy Americans "to help the poor", and --you guessed it-- 3)private savings accounts coupled with yet more reductions in guaranteed benefits. It's certainly a novel approach. Cut benefits for the middle class; you know, the majority of Americans, those people who actually vote in elections. As Frank Newport of Gallup said, the more Bush talks about social security the more his poll numbers drop. But those in the echo chamber don't seem to hear what Americans are saying.

    Posted on April 29, 2005
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    Bush's Poll Numbers Tumble

    Editor and Publisher reports on the latest Gallup poll, and it's not good news for the White House. 50% if all Americans now believe that the Bush administration deliberately misled the country about whether Iraq had weapons of mass destruction.
    "This is the highest percentage that Gallup has found on this measure since the question was first asked in late May 2003," the pollsters observed. "At that time, 31% said the administration deliberately misled Americans. This sentiment has gradually increased over time, to 39% in July 2003, 43% in January/February 2004, and 47% in October 2004."

    Also, according to the latest poll, more than half of Americans, 54%, disapprove of the way President Bush is handling the situation in Iraq, while 43% approve. In early February, Americans were more evenly divided on the way Bush was handling the situation in Iraq, with 50% approving and 48% disapproving. Last week Gallup reported that 53% now believe that the U.S. invasion of Iraq was "not worth it."
    The Gallup poll, coupled with the pathetic state of the War on Terror is not good news for a president who said that he'd better get his favorite legislation pushed through early in 2005 or he'd be "quacking like a duck" before the first year of his second term ended.

    Posted on April 26, 2005
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    American Catholics Out of Step With Vatican on Social Issues

    A recent USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll sheds some interesting light on the attitudes of American Catholics. 78% believe Catholics should be allowed to use birth control. 63% believe that priests should be allowed to marry. 59% would like church doctrine on stem cell research to be less strict. 55% believe women should be allowed to become priests. 49% believe Catholics should be able to divorce and re-marry without getting an annulment. But only 37% of Catholics believe that church doctrine on abortion should be less strict.

    These poll numbers illustrate the challenges ahead for the next pope. American Catholics are an independent lot, and donations from American churches send a sizable amount of money to the Vatican. Many dioceses are without priests at all; they have to rely on a "circuit-riding" priest who handles several parishes. If priests could marry and women could become priests this would alleviate the priest shortage, argue many American Catholics. Some also believe it would raise the standards on the kind of people seeking the priesthood and would help greatly with the church's devastating sexual abuse scandals.

    But given the fact that John Paul II personally chose 100 of the cardinals who will be locked in the Sistine Chapel to elect a new pope, it seems unlikely that they will elect a liberal Catholic who thinks Vatican II was a good thing.

    Posted on April 3, 2005
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    Republican Senators Waffling on Social Security Privatization

    USA Today reports some bad news for President Bush: the latest USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll conducted Friday-Sunday found that a paltry 35% of Americans approve of Bush's Social Security record, 56% disapprove and 9% have no opinion. After a week of hearing angry seniors gripe at them during town hall meetings, many Republican Senators have returned to Washington less than thrilled with the whole privatization thing. Senator Frist (who has apparently learned a thing or two about how to handle the unruly Senate) threw the whole issue squarely back in Bush's lap. "The president will have to stay out there and lead on it, when a lot of political figures want to run and hide and when you have a lot of people who say there's no problem." At least he recognizes that many people (read: economists and the majority of Americans) heard the president loud and clear when he admitted that private accounts will not improve the financial situation of social security. Frist may have thrown the hot potato back to Bush, but the president has a problem: the more he talks, the more people are opposed to his plan. Or, as Senator Chuck Schumer quipped; "In two months, the president has created a firestorm against [his own plan]." The Gallup Poll had some more bad news for Bush: his favorable rating is at 56%, but the AARP's favorable rating is at 75%.

    Posted on March 1, 2005
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    Shiites Win Big in Iraqi Elections

    So, the results are in. It looks like the Shiites really got their base out to vote: the Shiite Islamist slate received more than 47% of the vote, a Kurdish alliance got 25% and our guy Allawi was the anchorman in the election, with only 14% of the votes. Each of those parties will take their proportion of the 275 seats in the National Assembly which will write a new constitution. The Christian Science Monitor reports that the Sunnis barely voted at all. But it looks like the Kurds really showed up at the polls, thank goodness. Turkey is making grumbling noises about the Kurds and their independent leanings. Condi tried to pour oil on those troubled waters, but I still think that there's a good chance that if the new government doesn't respect the Kurdish independent streak, they are going to secede and form a Kurdistan. Now everyone is dealmaking like crazy to get enough support for a good voting block in the upcoming constitutional squabbling. Allawi hotfooted it up to see the Kurds and discuss how his secular leanings are more beneficial to them than the Islamic government favored by Sistani. Still, this is not good news for the U.S.'s interests. Even if the Kurds and Allawi's people form an alliance, they still are outnumbered by the Shiites. Allawi better brush up on his negotiating skills. Let's hope they're better than his campaigning skills.

    Posted on February 13, 2005
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    Iraqis Brave Bombs and Hit the Polls

    8 million Iraqis talked back to the insurgents today and headed for the polls. The New York Times has a good summary of what's going on today in the country which is finally lurching towards democracy and stability. As expected, turnout in the Shiite-populated south and in the Kurdish north has been high. The Sunni Triangle, or the Triangle of Death, as journalists have taken to calling it, had a much lower turnout of voters. Nevertheless, Sunnis in the dreaded triangle did show up to vote in numbers that were higher than expected. Of course, it's too early to tell if our latest nation building effort is going to have a happy ending. Many moderate Iraqis wanted a delay in the elections to give them time to negotiate with the Sunnis and many Iraqis--accustomed to Saddam Hussein's periodic rigged elections--don't really believe that the election is legit. But, for today, for the people who managed to vote without being killed, it's a happy day.

    Posted on January 30, 2005
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    The U.S. Presidential Campaign Kicks into High Gear

    Polls taken just after the close of the Republican Convention show President Bush getting a robust bounce in the polls: both Newsweek and Time show Bush ahead of Kerry by 11 points. Before the convention, which effectively pounded home the message that only President Bush can keep our grandchildren safe from terrorists, the polls were too close to call. Some pollsters are saying that those numbers could flatten back out again in the coming weeks, especially if Kerry decides to abandon his gentlemanly style of campaigning and go for the jugular.

    All signs do point to Kerry having made a fundamental shift in his campaign style. Immediately after the addition of Joe Lockhart to the campaign, the Kerry Rapid Response Team shifted into action. During the Republican convention, Terry McAuliffe roamed a room of fact checkers who monitored the Republicans' speeches for accuracy. When distortions of Kerry's record were found, McAuliffe emailed his rebuttal to the media -- oftentimes just as the speech in question ended. The wild-eyed oratory by Zell Miller generated so many Democratic corrections and talking points, it's a wonder that the Rapid Response Team didn't develop Actue Carpal Tunnel Syndrome on the spot.

    But the best part of Zell Miller's performance wasn't his speech on Wednesday night; it was on Hardball with Chris Matthews. After Matthews asked Miller if he really thought that Senator Kerry would try to defend the United States against Al-Qaeda using only spitballs, Miller became enraged and actually challenged Matthews to a duel. He was actually shocked that Matthews had the audacity to challenge him on a talking point -- that Kerry is weak on defense. It was an easy question to answer for someone who had done his research. Ed Gillespie certainly could have answered it. Well, I say kudos to Chris Matthews for finally asking some hard questions. I just hope he's well-versed in the etiquette of dueling.

    Posted on September 3, 2004
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