Hillary Clinton has won West Virginia in a landslide. With 54% of the precincts reporting, Hillary is winning 65% - 28%. In her victory speech, Hillary made her case to the superdelegates. She listed all the states she has won, including the crucial general election states of Michigan, Florida, Ohio, California, Texas, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and New York. She was gracious to Senator Obama and his supporters, but said that she thinks she is the stronger candidate.
The crowd was energetic and it was a fantastic speech. She laid out her best arguments to the superdelegates as to why she should be the nominee, and it was compelling. Next week is Kentucky, where she is expected to win, and Oregon, where Obama is expected to win.
It appears that a large majority of Democrats couldn't care less what Donna Brazile, Chris Matthews or Keith Olbermann thinks. 64% of Democrats in a Washington Post/ABC News survey want Hillary Clinton to stay in the race.
Pushing back against political punditry, more than six in 10 Democrats say there's no rush for Hillary Clinton to leave the presidential race , even as Barack Obama consolidates his support for the nomination and scores solidly in general-election tests.
Despite Obama's advantage in delegates and popular vote, 64 percent of Democrats in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll say Clinton should remain in the race. Even among Obama's supporters, 42 percent say so.
If Obama is the nominee, a solid 39% want Clinton as the VP, with
59% of African-Americans wanting Clinton as the VP pick.
Tomorrow is the West Virginia primary, which does matter -- regardless of what those same, out of touch pundits say.
Joe Scarborough and Tucker Carlson have a scathing discussion about the crush that most of the news media has on Barack Obama. It's funny and it's dead on accurate.
CNN reports
that Barack Obama has won the Guam caucuses today by only seven votes. Not seven points, seven votes. Guam voters were so excited to be a part of the democratic nominating contest that they turned out in record numbers.
Sen. Barack Obama won Guam's Democratic presidential caucuses Saturday by just seven votes, according to a Guam election official.
With all 21 precincts reporting, Obama finished with 2,264 votes, or 50.1 percent. Sen. Hillary Clinton got 2,257 votes, or 49.9 percent.
The presidential candidates were battling for Guam's four pledged delegate votes. Eight delegates will be elected, each with half a vote at the Democratic National Convention in Denver, Colorado, this summer.
*****
Cathleen Moore-Linn stood in line for more than an hour outside the old police precinct in Dededo, Guam's most populated village. Despite the 90-degree tropical heat and a lack of air conditioning at the polling site, she said, "Nobody left. A lot of manamko' [elderly people] came out to vote. And people were filling out the forms to join the Democrat Party."
At villages in the southern end of the island, which is far less populated, election committee member Nancy Weare says the voting is running smoothly. "There's a constant flow of traffic and good voter turnout."
Guam will bestow four delegates to the candidates: two to Hillary and two to Obama, so it is a tie vote-wise and delegate-wise. This is an excellent showing for Hillary Clinton; many predicted an Obama win here.
Rev. Jeremiah Wright was interviewed by Bill Moyers: the interview will air on PBS on Friday night at 9:00 p.m. ET. Snippets of the interview have leaked out and they aren't pretty. This is the very last thing the Obama campaign needs, heading into an Indiana primary. Chris Matthews of MSNBC calls Jeremiah Wright "Barack Obama's Iraq."
And here's Obama's victory speech from last night, which no one listened to because of Fitchgate. So who are the three dimwits wearing Abercrombie and Fitch t-shirts standing behind Obama? And how did they get past his advance team?
President Bush has reached
a new milestone. He has just polled the lowest of any American president in the 70 year history of Gallup polling. His approval rating is now 28%.
In a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday, 28% of Americans approve of the job Bush is doing; 69% disapprove. The approval rating matches the low point of his presidency, and the disapproval sets a new high for any president since Franklin Roosevelt.
The previous record of 67% was reached by Harry Truman in January 1952, when the United States was enmeshed in the Korean War.
Bush's rating has worsened amid "collapsing optimism about the economy," says Charles Franklin, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison who studies presidential approval. Record gas prices and a wave of home foreclosures have fueled voter angst.
Bush also holds the record for the other extreme: the highest approval rating of any president in Gallup's history. In September 2001, in the days after the 9/11 attacks, Bush's approval spiked to 90%. In another record, the percentage of Americans who say the invasion of Iraq was a mistake reached a new high, 63%, in the latest poll.
Assessments of Bush's presidency are harsh. By 69%-27%, those polled say Bush's tenure in general has been a failure, not a success.
This is a milestone no president wants to reach. It is interesting that it was actually the Republican primary debates which introduced to the average voter the concept that the Iraq War (with its associated borrowing of billions from China to finance it) being a major drag on our economy. All the candidates eventually talked about the dangers of borrowing to finance a war, but really it was those Republican debates that got the concept discussed in the mainstream media.
Now unhappiness with the economy, the high gas prices and the Iraq War are all bundled together in consumers' minds, leading Bush to the worst approval ratings of his career.
The sound you hear is Hell freezing over: Pat Robertson and Al Sharpton are appearing in ad together to urge Americans to unite on the issue of climate change. It's part of a series of ads put together by Al Gore. It's a funny -- and extremely effective -- ad.
Saturday Night Live: The Clintons Talk Tax Returns
Saturday Night Live had a very funny opening skit where Bill and Hillary Clinton talk about their tax returns and make fun of the press for all the hysteria over information that has been mostly public for years, such as the amount they made from book deals and speaking engagements. Take a look:
Majority of Americans Unhappy With Direction of Country
This is some bad news for any politician in office now: 81% of Americans think the country is on the wrong track. That's a lot of unhappy Americans.
Americans are more dissatisfied with the country's direction than at any time since the New York Times/CBS News poll began asking about the subject in the early 1990s, according to the latest poll.
In the poll, 81 percent of respondents said they believed “things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track," up from 69 percent a year ago and 35 percent in early 2002.
Although the public mood has been darkening since the early days of the war in Iraq, it has taken a new turn for the worse in the last few months, as the economy has seemed to slip into recession. There is now nearly a national consensus that the country faces significant problems.
A majority of nearly every demographic and political group — Democrats and Republicans, men and women, residents of cities and rural areas, college graduates and those who finished only high school — say the United States is headed in the wrong direction. Seventy-eight percent of respondents said the country was worse off than five years ago; just 4 percent said it was better off.
The dissatisfaction is especially striking because public opinion usually hits its low point only in the months and years after an economic downturn, not at the beginning of one. Today, however, Americans report being deeply worried about the country even though many say their own personal finances are still in fairly good shape.
Only 21 percent of respondents said the overall economy was in good condition, the lowest such number since late 1992, when the recession that began in the summer of 1990 had already been over for more than a year. In the latest poll, two in three people said they believed the economy was in recession today.
The unhappiness presents clear risks for Republicans in this year's elections, given the continued unpopularity of President Bush. Twenty-eight percent of respondents said they approved of the job he was doing, a number that has barely changed since last summer. But Democrats, who have controlled the House and Senate since last year, also face the risk that unhappy voters will punish Congressional incumbents.
The Bush administration has wasted so much of taxpayers' money by borrowing billions from the Chinese to finance a disastrous war that the economic picture is looking quite grim. And what always happens when an administration swings too far right (in this case towards the idealistic, nonsensical neocon philosophy, certainly not towards fiscal conservatism)? Why, we swing back too far the other way. That's just human nature.
A survey of Barack Obama's statements on the economy are pretty disturbing. He has said he wants to double the capital gains rate and raise the FICA taxes that are so burdensome to small businesses and to wage earners. And that's just the beginning of what is starting to sound like the socialist economic playbook. As we head into a recession and jobs continue their flight overseas, the idea of raising taxes is irresponsible. Obama also wants to reinstate the death tax, which otherwise will expire at the end of 2010.
Obama claims that he will only raise taxes on the "rich" -- but he has had wildly varying definitions of what "rich" is. In one speech he talked about about families who make over $75,000. Tell a family with one $75,000 income and two children in New York that they are "rich". They'll think you are crazy. In another one of his word blizzards, he mentioned the sum of $200,000. Meanwhile, Michelle Obama has complained about how financially stretched they are -- and the Obamas made $991,296.00 in 2006. Are they "rich"?
Hillary Clinton has said she opposes raising employment taxes, and that she will freeze death taxes at their 2009 levels, which is a lot better than Obama's plan (death taxes are eliminated in 2010 and go back to the absurdly high 2002 rate in 2011 because the tax cuts were never made permanent). Death taxes are disastrous for family-owned businesses and small businesses. Hillary will roll back the part of the Bush tax cuts that give incentives for outsourcing American jobs overseas, which is a good thing. She will institute tax breaks for companies who create jobs in America, which is an excellent plan that addresses the biggest problem for the middle and working class: getting and keeping a job with a good salary and benefits.
She will also roll back the tax cuts for families who make over $250,000 a year, which is better than Barack's plan, but still not a good idea.
As far as John McCain goes, who knows what he would do economically? He has said that he really doesn't understand the economy. He voted against the Bush tax cuts and now he says he supports them. This is a man who has drawn a government paycheck all of his life. He's never had to meet a payroll, withhold government taxes or raise funding. When asked what he would do, he used to answer "I'll be advised by Jack Kemp." Ok, great. So when is Jack Kemp going to talk about McCain's fiscal plans? One bright spot here is that McCain has made up with Mitt Romney. At least Mitt knows something about meeting a payroll and how burdensome taxes hurt small businesses, which are the backbone of the economy.
Lou Dobbs Talks Media Bias Against Hillary Clinton
Lou Dobbs addresses the extreme negative bias against Hillary Clinton that the mainstream media has shown and the absurdity of the calls for her to drop out of the race before all the Democratic voters have had their say. He also discusses the fact that neither candidate can win the nomination mathematically, that the superdelegates will decide.
As for the possible disregarding of the votes of the Michigan and Florida delegates: "There is nothing more unfair than not to have those votes counted in Michigan and Florida. And if this nomination is decided with superdelegates without recognizing, counting and enfranchising those voters in Michigan and Florida, that's when we'll hear that it was unfair."
John McCain has released his first general election ad. It's a great ad which focuses on McCain's character and his love for America. It does mention tax relief, however as a headline that reads "McCain Promises Middle Class Tax Relief". McCain is also shown as a clearly scared but very brave young prisoner of war, being asked to give his rank and serial number. It's a gut punch to voters, reminding them of what he has been through in his life.
The tagline is a doozy: "John McCain: the American president that Americans have been waiting for." It's a riff on Obama's "we're the ones we've been waiting for." It also takes a subtle swipe at Obama and his wife on patriotism. The problem here is that no one doubts John McCain's patriotism. Voters aren't sure that he knows what he's doing on the economy, which is why his choice of running mate will be very important.
Overall, it's a very effective ad.
Top Democratic donors who support Hillary Clinton have written a letter to Nancy Pelosi taking her to task for her recent, ill-advised comments about superdelegates not "overturning the will of the voters." Speaker Pelosi should stay neutral and above the fray before there is a nominee, but she's clearly favoring Obama -- which is pretty ironic considering that it was Hillary Clinton who won Pelosi's home state of California. Here's an excerpt from the letter:
Several states and millions of Democratic voters have not yet had a chance to cast their votes.
We respect those voters and believe that they, like the voters in the states that have already participated, have a right to be heard. None of us should make declarative statements that diminish the importance of their voices and their votes. We are writing to say we believe your remarks on ABC News This Week on March 16th did just that.
During your appearance, you suggested super-delegates have an obligation to support the candidate who leads in the pledged delegate count as of June 3rd, whether that lead be by 500 delegates or 2. This is an untenable position that runs counter to the party's intent in establishing super-delegates in 1984 as well as your own comments recorded in The Hill ten days earlier:
"I believe super-delegates have to use their own judgment and there will be many equities that they have to weigh when they make the decision. Their own belief and who they think will be the best president, who they think can win, how their own region voted, and their own responsibility."
The entire reason for the existence of the superdelegates is to pick a nominee if no one reaches the magic number that guarantees the nomination. Superdelegates can vote for whoever they want, exercising their independent judgment. If superdelegates have to follow their own state's voters, then Pelosi, Kerry, Kennedy and Richardson will all have to declare for Clinton.
The people who wrote this letter are really, really big donors who the Democratic party relies upon. All they are asking is that Pelosi keep her mouth shut, quit trying to short-circuit the process and let the primary season play itself out. Or else they might close their wallets in the fall.
In an interview today, Hillary Clinton was asked
what she would do if her pastor made the kind of remarks that Obama's former pastor Wright had made.
"He would not have been my pastor," Clinton said. "You don't choose your family, but you choose what church you want to attend."...
The Clinton campaign has refrained from getting involved in the controversy, but Clinton herself, responding to a question, denounced what she said was "hate speech."
"You know, I spoke out against Don Imus (who was fired from his radio and television shows after making racially insensitive remarks), saying that hate speech was unacceptable in any setting, and I believe that," Clinton said. "I just think you have to speak out against that. You certainly have to do that, if not explicitly, then implicitly by getting up and moving."
Her response was very measured, and appropriate. It also cuts to the essential point that was lost during Senator Obama's word blizzard of a speech in which he talked and talked and talked, but never gave a good explanation as to why he would let his little girls grow up in a church where the pastor preached hate speech.
Reverend Wright's statements can't be explained away to mainstream voters with platitudes. Wright spews vile, disgusting, racist Anti-Americanism propaganda and is a conspiracy nut, to boot. He actually "preaches" that the U.S. government created the AIDS virus to exterminate black people. And Obama thinks somehow it's sufficient simply to say that he "disagrees" with that statement. It's not.
The Eliot Spitzer scandal really shocked New York -- and the rest of the nation, for that matter -- because of Governor Spitzer's extremely moral public stance. He busted prostitution rings, railed about the virtual enslavement of young girls, and went after spammers with a zeal that endeared him to ordinary Americans. But as the story continues to unravel, an uglier side of Eliot Spitzer has appeared. His improper threatening of innocent business executives is legendary on Wall Street and his hounding of Dick Grasso infuriated many. Grasso never committed a crime, but Spitzer didn't like that he got a very large retirement bonus. More stories of harassment are coming forward.
So it turns out that while Spitzer was telling people that he always "did the right thing" he was frequenting high priced call girls, using money that it is alleged to come from campaign funds. We don't know if that part it true: if it is, he could very well do jail time. Under threat of impeachment, Spitzer resigned and everyone heaved a sigh of relief: the wonderful, honorable and funny Lt. Governor David Paterson would take over. He was sworn in, with his wife by his side. Everyone loves him, swooned the media.
Right after he was sworn in, Paterson dropped
a new bomb: he had affairs with a number of women, and was jealous of his wife's affair with another man. It was all during a "rough patch" in their marriage and he swears he never used state funds. One mistress was a state employee, though.
Then a former aid to disgraced Governor McGreavy (who I will always think of as Governor McCreepy), alleges that he had an ongoing three-way affair with the Governor and his wife. This is all before the Governor had to resign, admit he was gay and admit he gave his boyfriend a cushy state job he didn't deserve. We also have the David Vitter mess from last summer: the Republican Louisiana senator's name showed up
on the D.C. Madame's call list, for which he has apologized.
So, who's next? Governors Gone Wild: now there's a video that no one wants to see.
After the Jeremiah Wright scandal broke wide on Friday, Senator Obama did the rounds of the talk shows Friday night to try to stem the bleeding. Obama appeared on Anderson Cooper 360, on Fox News with Major Garrett and on MSNBC with Keith Olbermann. Garrett grilled Obama, who looked like a deer in the headlights. Olbermann lobbed mostly softballs at him. The best interview by far was by Anderson Cooper (see the video here
and the transcript here). Obama's defense was really pathetic. After saying earlier that he didn't think his pastor was particularly controversial, he now said he condemned the statements that are upsetting everyone. "If it offends you then I condemn it." How bold of him.
His next defense was that he was never in the church when Wright was making his horrible statements that we saw in the tapes. You know, the statements by Wright that the U.S. created the AIDS virus to commit genocide upon the black race, how FDR lied to the American people, that he knew Pearl Harbor was coming and allowed servicemen to die intentionally, that we deserved to be hit on 9/11 and that blacks should sing "God Damn America" instead of "God Bless America."
He then previewed what will most likely be his argument in the coming weeks: that Wright is part of an older, angrier black generation and that he is the new generation that can bring us all together. What a load of nonsense. He seemed like a typical uncomfortable, triangulating, disingenuous politician who has been caught in a big lie. And he has. How can he expect voters to believe that he spent twenty years being mentored by this guy -- who he said brought him to Christ and is a spiritual advisor -- and not know about his hate-filled, divisive philosophy?
Reverend Wright married Michelle and Barack Obama. He baptized his two children. He blessed his house (you know, the one involved in the Rezko transaction). Coop got Barack to admit that when he was at Harvard Law School he would listen to tapes of Rev. Wright over and over. His book is based on one of Wright's sermons and he has clearly picked up his oratorical style.
Wright's rants are un-American, racist and full of hate speech, the kind of hate speech that is banned in Germany and France. And the new minister is just as confrontational: Sunday he accused the media of "crucifying" Rev. Wright. Wright crucified himself with his appalling, vitriolic speeches. Now Barack Obama has decided to give a big speech tomorrow about race. Will he defend Wright? Most likely, he'll try to position himself as the great healer, the great savior of America. But it's too late. We've seen he's just another politician. Not much Change there.
Now here's what we've all been hoping and praying for: another debate between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Both campaigns have now agreed to a debate in Philadephia on April 16th, to be hosted by ABC News. But wait, there's more! Obama has agreed to another debate just three days later on April 19th in North Carolina. This one would be hosted by CBS News, with Katie Couric and Bob Schieffer as moderators. You may recall that CBS had a debate lined up earlier in the primary season, but a strike by the news writers sunk that one. Clinton hasn't accepted the debate, but she probably will.
In the meantime, here's a lovely video with some of the greatest hits of Barack Obama's pastor, Jeremiah Wright. Wright has some choice words for America (of which he is clearly not in the least bit proud). My favorite part is where he says blacks shouldn't sing "God Bless America" -- that instead they should sing "God Damn America." Nice, really nice. The racial tirade at the end is also a barn burner -- the crowd loves it.
To refresh your recollection, this is the pastor whose sermon inspired Obama's book The Audacity of Hope. The Obamas donated $20,000 to this church, to which Barack has belonged for over twenty years. Denounce and reject, anyone?
Elliot Spitzer resigned today as Governor of New York. What was surprising is that, according to the New York Attorney General's office, there is no deal in place. That means Spitzer could face criminal charges. Spitzer apologized again and said that he will resign as of Monday to allow an orderly transition of power to the new governor, Paterson.
This has all happened so fast. Now the media is focused on finding the hookers in the case. The New York Times has a profile
the infamous "Kristen" who entertained Client No. 9 (Spitzer) at the Mayflower Hotel. Kristen's real name is Ashley Alexandra Dupre. She has her own MySpace page, a blog and a dream of being a singer. She's also had over 2 million hits on her site since this story broke. Can a centerfold spread and a tell all book be far behind? It's Divine Brown, all over again.
Barack Obama has won Mississippi, as expected. The exit polls show that race played a very large factor. 48% of voters were white. Hillary won 70% of white voters; Barack Obama won 26%. 50% of voters were black. Obama won 92% of black voters, Clinton won only 8%. According to CNN's exit poll, 13% of the voters were Republicans, 77% of whom voted for Hillary. Indpendents favored Obama slighlty, 51%-48%. Those numbers are a huge improvement for Hillary.
Barack Obama talked to Wolf Blitzer after CNN called the race for him and he sure didn't seem happy. He didn't smile hardly at all; perhaps he's exhausted. Or perhaps he's still grumpy about that 3 am Saturday Night Live skit. In any event, he didn't have much to say really. He rebuffed Wolf's attempt to find out if he would ask Hillary to be his VP if he won, saying that's it's too early to tell and "Hillary would be on anyone's short list."
So, Mississippi is over. Obama's surrogates are going negative big time on Hillary calling her untruthful, deceitful etc. Is this what it's going to be like until Pennsylvania? I suppose we can debate what's going to happen with the Florida and Michigan delegates. That's always good for some angst.
New York Governor Eliot Spitzer is in big trouble: he was caught on a federal wiretap planning an assignation with a high-priced call girl. There was a sting going on that resembled the kind the crusading Spitzer used to run back in the day. The New York Times broke the story:
The wiretap captured a man identified as Client 9 on a telephone call confirming plans to have a woman travel from New York to Washington, where he had reserved a hotel room, according to an affidavit filed in federal court in Manhattan. The person briefed on the case and the law enforcement official identified Mr. Spitzer as Client 9.
Mr. Spitzer, a first term Democrat, today made a brief public appearance during which he apologized for his behavior, and described it as a "private matter." He did not address his political future.
"I have acted in a way that violates my obligation to my family and violates my or any sense of right or wrong," said Mr. Spitzer, who appeared with his wife Silda at his Manhattan office. "I apologize first and most importantly to my family. I apologize to the public to whom I promised better."
"I have disappointed and failed to live up to the standard I expected of myself. I must now dedicate some time to regain the trust of my family."
Before speaking, Mr. Spitzer stood with his arm around his wife; the two nodded and then strode forward together to face more than 100 reporters. Both had glassy, tear-filled eyes, but they did not cry.
As he went to leave, three reporters called out, "Are you resigning? Are you resigning?", and Mr. Spitzer charged out of the room, slamming the door.
The governor learned that he had been implicated in the prostitution inquiry when a federal official contacted his staff Friday, according to the person briefed on the case.
The governor informed his top aides Sunday night and this morning of his involvement. He canceled his public events today and scheduled the announcement for this afternoon after inquiries from The Times. The governor's aides appeared shaken before he spoke, and one of them began to weep as they waited for him to make his statement at his Manhattan office.
Spitzer has a wife and three children, so it's pretty much a nightmare for his family. His wife stood by him at the press conference and looked miserable, but resolute. Will he resign? Fox News reports he will resign tonight, but his words today at the press conference held no hint of that.
Well, she actually did it: Hillary Clinton won the Texas primary. Her victory speech in Ohio came before she knew she won Texas, but she sounded upbeat and reenergized. This is a major win for her: she's really turned her campaign around.
Bill Clinton was in Austin at a victory party and he seemed really happy, as did the boisterous, really young crowd. Exit polls show that Hillary won women, white voters, Hispanic voters and older voters. Her coalition has come back together.
So what does it all mean? It means that the Democratic primary race is back on in a big way. Neither candidate can get to the magic number of 2024 delegates (Howard Dean told Wolf Blitzer that it's 2024 not 2025 as has been reported elsewhere) so under the DNC rules, the superdelegates will select who wins. The superdelegates are going to go with whoever has the momentum, and right now Hillary can claim that she's won every big state she's run in but Illinois (Obama's home state). One thing's for sure: this is the best reality show on TV right now.
The Senate Ethics Committee issued a smackdown
to airport bathroom enthusiast Larry Craig (R-Idaho).
n a letter to the Republican senator, the ethics panel said Craig's attempt to withdraw his guilty plea after his arrest at a Minneapolis airport was an effort to evade legal consequences of his own actions.
Craig's actions constitute "improper conduct which has reflected discreditably on the Senate," the letter said.
A spokesman for Craig had no immediate comment.
The six members of the committee -- three Democrats and three Republicans -- told Craig they believed he "committed the offense to which you pled guilty" and that "you entered your plea knowingly, voluntarily and intelligently."
The panel said Craig only tried to remove his guilty plea after his attempts to avoid public disclosure had failed.
"Your claims to the court ... to the effect that your guilty plea resulted from improper pressure or coercion, or that you did not, as a legal matter, know what you were doing when you pled guilty do not appear credible," the letter said.
Here is a handy chart that shows the delegates up for grabs on Super Tuesday. The chart also contains links to sources that will show you the latest polls for each state.
The Republicans held their last debate before Super Tuesday last night at the Reagan Library in California. Governor Schwarzenegger, Nancy Reagan and Kelsey Grammar (he's a Republican?) were in attendance. The candidates were seated in front of Reagan's old aircraft, which gave the scene a surreal air -- like they were on a movie set or something.
This was not McCain's best night. He answered a question about why he's qualified to run the economy with a rambling speech about his war service and his experiences as a POW. He reiterated that he served "for patriotism, not profit" which is fine if you're talking about a war, but to diss the concept of profits at a Republican debate is the equivalent of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton announcing plans for three more, unspecified wars in the middle of the Democratic debate. The audience was not amused and McCain looked really out of touch. He seemed peevish and small tonight. He nearly drove Mitt Romney crazy by harping on some comment about "timetables" in Iraq. Every major newspaper backs Mitt Romney's version of what he said, but McCain is like a terrier with a bone, droning on and on and on about it. This prompted Ron Paul (who was having the best debate of his entire life) to cry foul, saying "Oh, for Pete's sake! You both agree that you love the war and want to stay in Iraq forever, so let's get on with some real policy debates -- like why we are in a war against a country that had nothing to do with 9/11 that is going to bankrupt our country!" (I'm paraphrasing here.) That got big audience applause.
Huckabee's jokey, car salesman act is wearing really thin and he kept whining that no one was asking him any questions. The concept that Rudy Guiliani is out of the race, but that this guy is still in is an amazing thing.
The best moment of the night is when Anderson Cooper pointed to Ronald Reagan's actual diary like it was the Old Testament and read Reagan's entry from the day he nominated (pro-choice) Sandra Day O'Connor to the Supreme Court. Reagan said that the "pro-life people are really coming after me....Sandra will make a great justice." Coop then asked each candidate would he have nominated O'Connor? They all said they would nominate pro-life judges like Alito and Roberts. But the point was made -- despite what the revisionists would like us to think, Reagan appointed the swing vote that kept Roe vs. Wade the law of the land. That's all going to change if any of these candidates is elected, as they have just vehemently promised.
But the winner of the debate was Ron Paul for his answer to the question put to each of the candidates: "Would Ronald Reagan endorse you?" Paul said that he doesn't know what Reagan would do if he were alive today, but that Reagan did personally campaign for him in 1978. (Ronald Reagan helped launch Ron Paul's political career which would later come back to bedevil Republican candidates in 2008? The irony!) The thuds we all heard were the other candidates' jaws hitting the floor. Paul then followed up with the nugget that President Reagan personally told him that any country that went off the gold standard would head into economic ruin. It was a glorious day in Ron Paul City.
Alas, the Ron Paul blimp has been grounded due to lack of funding. The campaign is still asking for donations to pay off the blimp bill.
The blimp is headed back home to its hangar in Elizabeth City, NC.
The blimp did not receive enough sponsorships to keep it afloat any longer.
We will be keeping the banners in hopes of flying the blimp for "round 2" in a few months. If you would like to sponsor the blimp we would still appreciate it as we still have a balance due to Airship Management Services.
If funds were to pour in from Ron Paul supporters ("Ronnies"? "Paulites"?) then the blimp could be airborne once more.
John McCain won the Republican primary in Florida, thereby picking up all 57 of the delegates (for the Republicans it's a winner take all state). Romney came in second and Guiliani came in third. Guiliani then withdrew from the race and is expected to endorse Senator McCain tomorrow.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton won by a very large margin, with Barack Obama in second and John Edwards in third. Because of Howard Dean's boneheadedness, the delegates will not be awarded to punish Floridians for moving up their primary ahead of Super Tuesday. At a large victory rally, Hillary vowed to try to have Florida's and Michigan's delegates seated at the convention. 1.68 million Democrats voted in Florida. For the DNC to tell them their votes don't count would be a decision rooted in idiocy.
Tomorrow night the Republicans will debate at the Reagan Library in California. On Thursday, the Democrats will debate. Everyone is now campaigning frantically until Super Tuesday.
As expected, Barack Obama has won the South Carolina Democratic primary by a large margin. Final numbers aren't in yet, but CNN has called the race for Obama, with Hillary in second and Edwards in third.
According to the exit polls, Obama won 81% of all the African American vote, but only 24% of the white vote. Hillary won 24% of the African American vote and 36% of the white vote. Edwards received only 1% of the African-American vote and 29% of the white vote. Hillary won the white female vote and the older white vote. African American men and women voted for Obama in the same percentages. These internal numbers have to be troubling for the Obama campaign. Georgia is the only other state that has that big of an African American population. Hillary is really pulling the white female vote, as well as the vote of those over 60. Expect Obama to increase his targeting of female voters in the days ahead.
The candidates only have 10 days until Super Tuesday (with Florida on the way), so South Carolina is now firmly in their rear view mirrors.
Tim Russert Looks at Florida and South Carolina Polls
Tim Russert looks at some of the latest poll numbers for the upcoming GOP race in Florida on the 29th and the Democratic race this weekend in South Carolina on the 26th. Mitt Romney has the edge over John McCain in this particular Florida poll. In South Carolina the poll has Barack Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. Russert points out one interesting statistic from this South Carolina poll - it shows Barack Obama getting nearly 60% of the black vote but just 10% of the white vote.
Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney won the Nevada caucuses today. Hillary won 51% of the vote, Obama won 45% and Edwards won 4%. On the Republican side, Mitt Romney won 51% of the vote, beating out McCain (13%), Guiliani (4%), Huckabee (8%), Thompson(8%), and Ron Paul (14%).
In South Carolina, the Republican primary was held today -- the Democratic primary won't happen for a week. John McCain won South Carolina with 33% of the vote, beating Huckabee (30%), Thompson (16%), Romney (15%), Paul (4%), Guiliani (2%) and Hunter (0%).
This is a big day for Hillary and for Mitt Romney. Romney has the momentum here, heading into Florida which is a do or die state for Guiliani. Huckabee's second place showing may not be enough to help him raise the big money he needs to go on. The polls show Florida is a toss up with McCain, Guiliani, Romney and Huckabee is a virtual tie. Florida is a winner take all state, so those 57 delegates are a sweet prize for whoever wins.
John Stewart on the Daily Show pokes fun at the media for accusing the candidates of playing the "race card." Stewart also looks back at the comment from Hillary Clinton about Martin Luther King and President Lyndon Johnson that supposedly stirred things up and finds nothing inflammatory.
Mike Huckabee clearly is still reeling from Fred Thompson's attacks on him last night. He volunteered an explanation of Fred's intestinal difficulties in this video.
McCain Wins New Hampshire: Down to the Wire For Clinton and Obama
CNN has called the New Hampshire primary for John McCain. In second was Mitt Romney, with Mike Huckabee in third. The votes aren't all counted yet, but it's clear McCain is the winner and he's already given his victory speech.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has led all night by a slim margin over Barack Obama. CNN has called John Edwards as the third place finisher. With 63% of the precincts reporting, Hillary leads 39% to 36% over Obama. But the two major college towns have not reported in yet, and exit polls show Obama carried the youth vote, while Hillary carried the female vote, the union vote and the older voters.
Did Hillary's new campaign strategy of scrapping her stump speech and taking questions from voters win new supporters? Did they like what they saw in the debates last weekend? It's too soon to tell, but one thing's for sure: it's way to early in this race to count Hillary Clinton out, no matter what some pundits are saying.
Update at 9:49 CT: AP and NBC are calling the race for Hillary, but CNN won't call it, saying the two big college towns haven't reported in yet.
Update at 10:23 pm CT: It's official -- Hillary Clinton just gave her victory speech and it was a good one. She said she listened to what the people of New Hampshire had to say and in doing so found her own voice. She talked about her comeback and how she was ready to move forward and fight for those who needed a voice.
With nearly all of the precincts reporting, Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama have won the Iowa caucuses. On the democratic side: with 97% of the precincts reporting, Obama won 38%, Edwards won 30% and Clinton won 29%. On the Republican side with 85% of the precincts reporting, Huckabee won 34% of the vote, Romney won 25% and Thompson won 14%. As with the caucuses, each party handles things differently when it comes to delegates.
So, what does it all mean? on the Democratic side it's a win for Obama, certainly and will give him some press and headlines as he goes to New Hampshire tomorrow. For Edwards, it's a problem. He has a money issues, and coming in just a few votes head of Clinton is no help at all. For Clinton, it shows that she made the correct choice in not skipping Iowa. Because the dirty little secret about Iowa that the mainstream press keeps "forgetting" to report is that the state has never elected a woman to anything. Not to the House of Representatives, not to the Senate and not to the Governor's mansion. For Clinton to land in a tie for second is excellent for her. She needs pack up, head to New Hampshire and not look back. In fact, her big test doesn't really come until February 5th or Super Duper Tuesday when a large number of states are holding their primaries this year, including delegate-rich California and New York.
As for the Republicans, it's a real blow to Mitt Romney who spent $6 million in the state. This is not a happy night for him. For Guiliani it's a disaster and shows that he made a big mistake not campaigning in Iowa. Guiliani got only 4% of the vote while being beat handily by Ron Paul, who got 10%. Ouch.
It's a big win for Huckabee -- 60% of the caucus-goers described themselves as Evangelical Christians. But finding that many Evangelicals in New Hampshire will be much more difficult, to say the least. Thompson and McCain are still slugging it out for third -- it's withing a few hundred votes. McCain has already set his sites on New Hampshire, where he is currently
leading
in the polls. Ron Paul is no doubt thrilled that he got 10% of the vote and beat Guiliani.
That's the Iowa Caucuses: complex and inconsequential. As the primary season heats, Iowa will soon be a distant memory.
In this video CBS political analyst Jeff Greenfield explains how the Iowa caucuses work for both parties. The caucuses for both parties function very differently. The Republicans' Iowa caucus process is the much simpler one. It is very similar to a straw ballot with voters casting secret votes on a piece of paper. The voting process used by the Democrats is public. It is quiet complex and involves people standing in designated areas to support their candidate of choice. The Democratic candidates also need to achieve at least 15% support or their supporters can leave and go home or switch their support to another candidate.
Jeff Greenfield - who was a political analyst on CNN for many years before joining CBS - always manages to make complex political issues much easier to understand. If you want a written explanation of how the caucuses work you can read about the process here on Wikipedia and here on the Iowa Caucus website.
Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert to Return to the Airwaves
Jon Stewart (The Daily Show and Stephen Colbert (The Colbert Report) will return
the airwaves on January 7, 2008. But there's a catch: they won't have any of their comedy writers, because of the writers' strike.
After a previously scheduled two-week hiatus, "The Daily Show With Jon Stewart" and "The Colbert Report" will resume production Jan. 7, Comedy Central said in a statement released late Thursday afternoon.
"We continue to hold out hope for a swift resolution to the current stalemate that will enable the shows to be complete again," the network said.
Stewart and Colbert said they wished they could return to work with their writers.
"If we cannot, we would like to express our ambivalence, but without our writers we are unable to express something as nuanced as ambivalence," the comedians said in a statement.
The decision by the Comedy Central hosts, whose programs have been in reruns since the film and TV writers went on strike Nov. 5, follow announcements by Jay Leno, Conan O'Brien and Jimmy Kimmel this week that they would go back on the air in January, even if they had to cross a picket line. NBC's Carson Daly returned to the air this month.
In contrast with prime-time scripted series that rely on writers, the late-night hosts can theoretically improvise and fill the time with celebrity interviews and musical guests.
Jay Leno, Jimmy Kimmel and Conan O'Brien are also returning to the airwaves in early January, also without writers. David Letterman, who owns his own production company Worldwide Pants is currently in talks with the Writers Guild to get an exemption so he can use his writers. None of the other comedians own their own shows, so cannot negotiate directly with the WGA.
One strange result of the writers' strike is that the public has been seeing the presidential campaigning without the nightly commentary by comedians. With the comedians back, expect to see much more pointed criticism of all the candidates. That is, if they can improvise enough jokes to make a monologue. It's going to be very interesting to see how they fare.
Time Magazine has chosen
Vladimir Putin as its Person of the Year. Here's what the editors had to say about their selection:
TIME's Person of the Year is not and never has been an honor. It is not an endorsement. It is not a popularity contest. At its best, it is a clear-eyed recognition of the world as it is and of the most powerful individuals and forces shaping that world-for better or for worse. It is ultimately about leadership-bold, earth-changing leadership.
Putin is not a boy scout. He is not a democrat in any way that the West would define it. He is not a paragon of free speech. He stands, above all, for stability-stability before freedom, stability before choice, stability in a country that has hardly seen it for a hundred years. Whether he becomes more like the man for whom his grandfather prepared blinis -- who himself was twice TIME's Person of the Year-or like Peter the Great, the historical figure he most admires; whether he proves to be a reformer or an autocrat who takes Russia back to an era of repression-this we will know only over the next decade. At significant cost to the principles and ideas that free nations prize, he has performed an extraordinary feat of leadership in imposing stability on a nation that has rarely known it and brought Russia back to the table of world power. For that reason, Vladimir Putin is TIME's 2007 Person of the Year.
The runners up were: Al Gore, J.K. Rowling, Hu Jintao and David Petraeus.
Apparently not all of Oprah Winfrey's fans are happy about her decision to support Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton for president. Some feel that Oprah should be supporting the woman in the race -- not a man -- and have accused her of supporting Barack solely because he is black. Many of Oprah's fans have made their feelings known on her website: one post already has nearly 5,000 comments.
Not exactly a scientific sample, but there's a very, very lively discussion of Oprah's endorsement and its racial implications underway on Oprah's site, with a comment titled "OPRAH IS A TRAITOR!!!!!!!!!" getting 4,988 comments, with thousands more under other posts.
The original post:
"I cannot believe that women all over this country are not up in arms over Oprah's backing of Obama. For the first time in history, we actually have a shot at putting a woman in the white house and Oprah backs the black MAN. She's choosing her race over her gender- hypocracy [sic] at it's finest!! Oprah- you should be ashamed of yourself!!!!!"
Other commenters are split, with some defending Oprah, others attacking her, others trying to tone the conversation down. Another commenter wrote:
"For Oprah to do a Martin Luther Kingish, our time has come speech was shocking to me. It didn't even sound like her. She DEFINATELY [sic] chose a black and white platform whether she admits it at all. I for one will be watching Ellen."
Oprah has been campaigning with Barack and his numbers are climbing in Iowa, although reviews of her campaign appearances have been mixed. Many have commented how Oprah seems to overshadow Barack on stage -- and Michelle Obama is pretty much shunted to the sidelines.
In response to the growing controversy, Oprah told
Diane Sawyer that a vote for Obama is not a vote against Hillary and that if Obama were to lose the nomination she might have to "readjust her thinking." That's a pretty amazing statement if you think about it. In any event, Oprah should have been prepared: the world of politics is an entirely different thing from the world of a talk show host.
Federal prosecutors withdraw subpoena seeking identities of thousands of Amazon.com customers.
Minority whip Trent Lott says he will leave Senate before end of the year.
Vice President Dick Cheney found to have irregular heartbeat during doctor's visit. Cheney's heart was later zapped back into a regular rhythm.
Over 20,000 U.S. troops with brain injuries were left off the Pentagon's tally of injured troops.
GOP candidate Fred Thompson accuses Fox News of skewing things against him.
As http://tinyurl.com/2kb5al
Conservative Australian Prime Minister John Howard defeated by left-leaning Kevin Rudd. Rudd has promised to remove Australian combat troops from Iraq and sign the Kyoto treaty.
Oprah Winfrey is said to be planning to hit the campaign trail and stump for Barack Obama.
Senator Fred Thompson sliding in GOP New Hampshire polls - latest poll even has Ron Paul ahead of him. Even Fred Thompson has doubts he will become president.
Bush's homeland security adviser Fran Townsend resigned.
Popular on YouTube - video of Spain's King Juan Carlos telling Venezuela president Chavzez to shut up.
Newsweek signs both Karl Rove and Daily Kos' Markos Moulitasas as columnists.
Interrogation expert Malcolm Nance says water boarding is "torture" and "drowning."
President Bush and German Chancellor Angela Merkel vow diplomatic solution to Iran's nuclear program.
2007 has already been the deadliest year of the Iraq War for U.S. soldiers. 2007 has also already been the deadliest year in Afghanistan for U.S. soldiers.
Stephen Colbert drops White House bid. "I have chosen not to put the country through another agonizing Supreme Court battle," Colbert said.
Fox host Sean Hannity says Halloween is a liberal holiday. Hannity says Halloween, "teach[es] kids to knock on other people's doors and ask for a handout."
Hundreds of US diplomats are refusing Iraq postings.
President Bush performed the annual ritual of pardoning a turkey for Thanksgiving Day. The president officially pardoned May, the 2007 Thanksgiving Turkey, during festivities on Tuesday in the Rose Garden of the White House. In the event that something happened to May, the alternate turkey named Flower would have taken her place (who knew they had runners up?) Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
New Hampshire has finally set the date for its primaries: it's January 8, 2008 which is the earliest the primaries have ever been held in the state.
Iowa's nominating contest on January 3 and New Hampshire's primary kick off state-by-state battles to winnow out losers and elevate a select few candidates to move ahead and seek their parties' presidential nominations.
"It's earlier than we had imagined not too long ago, but first and foremost we are going to preserve the New Hampshire primary and this will let us do that," New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner told a news conference.
For more than half a century, running for the White House has meant romancing voters in New Hampshire, shaking hands and flipping burgers in hole-in-the-wall diners, in the hope that winning the state will spark a surge of publicity to secure the nomination in other states.
But a shake-up in the nominating calendar means the January 8 primary is the earliest in the history of New Hampshire, which has held the first primary in every presidential campaign since 1920.
New York Sen. Hillary Clinton leads the race for the Democratic nomination in the state, according to recent polls, while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads among likely Republican voters.
Both New Hampshire and Iowa have faced complaints that the mostly white and rural states do not offer a representative test for candidates, and that more racially and economically diverse states should play a bigger role.
The January 8th date puts the New Hampshire primary five days after the Iowa caucuses, which is the usual sequence of events. Michigan will most likely have its primary on January 15, 2008. All of this jockeying for position by the states is having a major effect on the next presidential election. For one thing, we are moving closer and closer to a national primary. Another effect is that voters are being forced to watch over a year of debates as the candidates desperately try to distinguish themselves from their competitors.
The battle over which state gets to hold its primary first has reached absurd levels -- at one point New Hampshire was threatening to hold a December primary, just so it could be first. Perhaps envisioning furious voters staying home from the primaries in droves, cooler heads prevailed in The Granite State.
Fox and Friends Saddened That Suitcase Nukes Not Possible
The co-hosts of Fox and Friends were really bummed out by a new report in which experts debunk the myth of the suitcase nuke. On the show 24 and in many movies, suitcase nukes are portrayed as very real, portable and easy to make. But according to the FBI's WMD experts it's just not so. The fissionable material itself degrades too quickly, the material required would be too big to fit into a suitcase and would be to heavy to be carried by one man. It would need to be the size of an SUV. The material is also too unstable: it quickly degrades all the electronics around it and becomes ineffective.
After appearing in numerous film and TV programs and even creeping its way into American political discourse, the suitcase nuke, a nuclear bomb small enough to be easily hidden, is unlikely to exist, according to experts. The revelation left the anchors of the Fox News program Fox & Friends more than a little disappointed.
"You mean '24' isn't true," Co-host Page Kelly inquired, referring to Fox's national security-themed prime time hit, starring Kiefer Sutherland as CIA agent Jack Bauer. "'24's my favorite show."
"It is a little bit of a let down," agreed Greg Kelly.
Unlike the saddened hosts of Fox and Friends, I find it positively heartening that that suitcase nukes aren't so easy to build and maintain. You can see the full report explaining why the suitcase nuke scenario isn't realistic here.
We are now in the fourth day of the Writers' Strike, which shows no sign of ending anytime soon. The Writers Guild of America ("WGA") is striking after negotiations with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers
("AMPTP") failed at the last minute. For the television viewers, this means that their favorite scripted shows - dramas, comedies and the like - are all about to go off the air, along with all the talk shows. If the strike runs as long as the last time eighteen years ago, the studios stand to lose $1 billion. Yet for some reason the media conglomerates are being obstinate, refusing to give writers even a tiny share of the residuals for shows that are shown in digital format, such as those that are downloadable on the Internet or cellphones.
In the old days, studios had staff writers and actors under contract. They got a salary, benefits and worked on whatever the studio told them to. Under the current system, writers are hired on a contract basis with no benefits or job security. At any one time 49% of the WGA writers are unemployed. Currently, the writers get no residuals at all from television shows that are shown online in their entirety, even if there is a commercial embedded into it. DVDs are going away and the writers want to make sure they get their tiny percentage (and, believe me, it is tiny) on the new media that will replace DVDs. The studios won't pay; hence, the strike. For the writers, it's do or die time. If they don't get paid on new media in the future, they will have no future when all media goes digital.
Enter the politicians. Bill Clinton reportedly is interested in brokering a deal before the economic repercussions to all parties become
Elliot Spitzer resigned today as Governor of New York. What was surprising is that, according to the New York Attorney General's office, there is no deal in place. That means Spitzer could face criminal charges. Spitzer apologized again and said that he will resign as of Monday to allow an orderly transition of power to the new governor, Paterson.
New York Governor Eliot Spitzer is in big 
The Republicans held their last debate before Super Tuesday last night at the Reagan Library in California. Governor Schwarzenegger, Nancy Reagan and Kelsey Grammar (he's a Republican?) were in attendance. The candidates were seated in front of Reagan's old aircraft, which gave the scene a surreal air -- like they were on a movie set or something.
